No one can claim anymore that the 2024 US presidential elections are boring and predictable, although they remain equally consequential to the American people and the rest of the world.
On 13 July, a day before the Republican National Convention (RNC) was to convene in Milwaukee to officially nominate former President Donald Trump as the Republican candidate, a lone young white man fired shots at Trump as he was speaking at an open-air rally in Pennsylvania. One bullet nicked the former president’s ear, miraculously missing his head in what would have been a fatal strike.
As Secret Service agents jumped on Trump to protect him, he managed to raise his fist in the air, shouting, “Fight”. Streaks of blood covered his ear and face as he was rushed to safety. The image of a bloodied Trump pumping his fist and shouting “fight” mesmerised America and the world. Trump had indeed secured the elections.
Back with a vengeance
He emerged with a bandaged ear at the RNC, smiling and pensive. Pundits said the ordeal humbled him. As he delivered his 90-minute speech on the third and final day of the convention, he appeared solemn, calling for unity. But then he turned his eyes away from the teleprompters and launched a tirade against President Joe Biden, the Democrats, and all those who opposed his agenda. The old Trump was back — with a vengeance.
For months, the focus was on his rival, an ailing, senile, and visibly confused Biden. Pressure has been mounting on the incumbent from his party to drop out of the race ever since his pathetic performance in his debate with Trump.
Biden was defiant and insisted that he was the only candidate capable of defeating a dangerous Trump, even as the poll showed him trailing, especially in the battleground states. The race appeared lost, and Trump was sailing smoothly towards winning the November poll.
But then, last week, a Covid stricken Biden announced that he was stepping aside and endorsing his Vice President, Kamala Harris, as a Democratic candidate. This was a political earthquake. Pundits scrambled to find precedents and pondered how the race would look now that Biden had decided to drop out.
At 82, it was not only old age that finally brought Biden down. The party was already divided on the eve of the Democratic primaries. Biden’s Gaza policy had dented his popularity among youth — who rallied to his support in the 2020 elections — as well as Muslim and Arab Americans. The majority of those voted uncommitted in the Muslim majority states in protest of the White House’s indifference to the Israeli atrocities in Gaza.
Make America great again
Despite his positive record in reining in inflation, creating jobs, and boosting the economy, Biden was attacked by the Conservatives over his failing policy to control the southern borders where thousands of illegal immigrants were crossing into the country. The Republicans, under Trump, warned of the so-called progressive agenda by the Democratic Party’s left flank and the dangers of the so-called woke culture.
There is no doubt today that endorsing Harris, a seasoned prosecutor, a woman of black roots, and one who can now unite the party and bring back the uncommitted, is a game changer. Despite Trump’s disdain for Harris and claim that he will easily defeat her, the reality is that she will present a serious challenge to the Trump campaign.
With Biden out of the race, the Democrats will now shift the focus to Trump’s agenda for America. They will be able to remind Americans, especially those uncommitted or those who believed the race was already over, of the Jan. 6 insurrection.
For corporate America, the Democrats will warn against Trump’s isolationist tendencies and his plan to wage a trade war against China and Europe in a bid to make America great again.
Project 2025
Those voting in November will not be casting the ballot for Harris as much as voting against Trump and the risk of him winning a second term, in which an ultraconservative agenda would likely shake the republic’s pillars, as outlined in the 900-page document produced by the Heritage Foundation entitled Project 2025.
While Trump has tried to distance himself from that agenda, pundits believe that even if a small part of it is implemented, it will endanger the country and breach its Constitution.
Nothing is for sure. Four months separate us from November, and much will happen between now and then. For the Middle East, a Trump victory would usher cataclysmic events, especially about the Israel/Palestine conflict and Israel’s confrontation with Iran.
That is not to say that a Harris presidency will bring peace to the region. But she will have learnt from Biden’s mistakes. She will surely be tougher on Netanyahu and his pursuit of an endless war that has hurt America’s standing in the world and made it an accessory to what is now being described as genocide in Gaza.
Since Trump launched his political career in 2015, he has managed to bring together and led various fragmented groups, revisionists and white supremacists, and turn them into a real power at the centre of US politics.
This election is about the soul of the United States, and its outcome will determine not only America’s future but also its place in a changing world.
Osama Al Sharif is a journalist and political commentator based in Amman.
