The opposition parties in India have been working on strategies, including the tailoring of alliances in each state, to take on the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2019 national election. But the first real test of the effectiveness of the hodge-podge group will be the lifespan of the Janata Dal (Secular)-Congress government in the southern state of Karnataka.
If it fails to survive at least till next year’s general election, then all hopes of a bloc against the BJP will evaporate. The current signs about the longevity of the H.D. Kumaraswamy government in Karnataka are not very reassuring. The Congress has been uncharacteristically magnanimous about allowing Kumaraswamy to become the Chief Minister although the JD-S is the junior partner in the coalition. But now the party appears unable to accept the reality of its No 2 position, despite winning 78 seats in the 224-member assembly to the JD-S’s 37.
That is evident in the differences over the budget. The chief minister wants to leave his stamp on the fiscal policy, much to the Congress’ consternation since the former chief minister, Siddaramaiah, had presented the state’s budget earlier and didn’t want his plans to be brushed aside. Relations between the present and former chief ministers have not been cordial ever since Siddaramaiah crossed over from the JD-S to the Congress upon realising that Kumaraswamy was the former prime minister H.D. Deve Gowda’s choice as his successor in the party.
Since there have been tussles over ministerial berths, Bengaluru was rife with rumours about the BJP toppling the Kumaraswamy government. Any sign of instability in the ruling alliance will enable the BJP to mock the rival parties’ efforts to form a combined opposition.
Since the Janata Party’s collapse in the late 1970s, coalitions were deemed inherently fragile at the national level although they have been successful in states such as Kerala and West Bengal. In New Delhi, however, neither the Janata Party of Morarji Desai, Charan Singh and Jagjivan Ram of 1977 nor the Janata Dal of V.P. Singh, Devi Lal and Chandrashekhar of 1989, could last long. The machinations of the Congress were one reason that undermined these alliances. In the 1990s, the Congress had brought down Deve Gowda’s federal government and paved the way — after I.K. Gujral’s brief interregnum — for the BJP’s rise to power.
The time has come for the Congress to show that it has got over its self-perception of being the natural party of governance in Lutyens Delhi and let others have their days in the sun. Its role in Karnataka will provide the proof.
It is a test of leadership not only for the Congress, but also for party president Rahul Gandhi, who has to show that he is not like his grandmother, Indira, or uncle, Sanjay, who sealed the Janata Party’s fate in 1979, or like his father, Rajiv, who brought down Chandrashekhar in 1991.
Since he aspires to be the prime minister, Rahul should show his skills in controlling his notoriously fractious party and accommodating his allies. Factionalism is not much of a challenge in Karnataka, unlike Madhya Pradesh, which boasts of Congress party heavyweights like Kamal Nath, Digvijay Singh and Jyotiraditya Scindia. So Rahul’s stewardship in Karnataka will send a message to the other states as well.
If he ensures some stability in Karnataka, Rahul would have advertised his credentials as the person to lead the 133-year-old Grand Old Party. Unlike Madhya Pradesh or Rajasthan, where the Congress has been out of power for a decade-and-a-half, the party singlehandedly held power in Karnataka until recently and is now a part of the ruling coalition. So the local leaders will be assertive in their attitudes and ambitions.
The challenge for Rahul, therefore, will be more significant. He has to show his leadership qualities and cannot afford to depend on Sonia Gandhi to tame the restive members. But his task will be more difficult than what Sonia faced when the Congress unexpectedly won in 2004 or when Rajiv became prime minister after Indira’s assassination in 1984.
— IANS
Amulya Ganguli is a political analyst.
