As Keir Starmer’s Labour Party romped home to a landslide win in the UK general elections earlier this month, there was a wave of relief in the liberal world.
This victory, along with the stunning and surprising performance of the Left in the French parliamentary polls, had stopped the hard right in its tracks in both countries.
At a time when the world is deeply polarised over issues like immigration and Islamophobia, many saw these results as a sign of hope. But a deeper look at the outcomes reveals the growing clout of the hard right not only in the UK and France, but across Europe and other parts of the world. A rise that can no longer be dismissed or ignored.
Look at the UK results. While Labour may have won, the data shows that this victory was essentially an anti-Tory party vote. The surprise performer was actually Nigel Farage’s far right Reform UK party.
Farage himself got elected to the British parliament for the first time after seven failed attempts earlier. His party exceeded expectations and won 5 seats in all and came second in many others.
Make no mistake, Farage is a disrupter who has much bigger ambitions and this will come at the cost of the Tories. He has said his aim was to build a “mass movement” to challenge the next general election “properly”. Some may laugh at him now but there is no doubt that Reform UK has made a mark and may grow from here.
Far right gaining momentum
In France, President Macron had hoped to call the far right’s bluff after their strong showing in the European Parliament polls. His decision to call for snap polls caused huge upheaval. In the end, the coalition of the Left parties emerged in the lead in a surprise turnaround, but fell short of a majority.
This has left France in a political gridlock. But more importantly, while the far right surge may have been stopped, they have made important gains. Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally and its allies got more than 140 seats. This is up from 89 seats in 2022. Le Pen is eyeing the presidency in 2027 and she believes their “victory has only been deferred”.
In the EU parliament elections last month, while the more centrist parties largely held their ground, the far right made significant gains. Enough to make it clear that they can no longer be ignored. So what can centrist forces do?
In Europe in particular, the far right challenges the core values of democracy that the EU stands for. It seems that for now the only way to really challenge them is for left and centrist forces to unite and come together as they did in France. But in the long term, they have to ask why the far right is gaining traction among voters at all.
Crucial next five years
Part of the problem is lack of faith in traditional parties especially among the youth. Data shows that in countries like France, Germany and Poland, younger voters were key to the success of the hard right.
Higher costs of living and inequality are key driving forces that are making young people challenge the status quo. The centrist parties need to find a better way to engage this demographic and its concerns.
The world’s attention now turns to the United States where the possibility of a second Donald Trump presidency has only increased in recent weeks. America’s turn to the right has only further exposed the deep polarisation that exists in the country and the challenges a second Trump term will bring. It mirrors what is happening across large parts of the world at the moment.
We are at a crossroads, and the next five years could change the world dramatically.
