Last week, the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs hosted the 15th annual Sir Bani Yas Forum, which brought together an overwhelming crowd of decision-makers from around the world, including current and former top officials, diplomats and columnists from international newspapers.
The significance of this event lies in the fact that the discussions are open and unrestricted, based on the principle of “nothing attributed to anyone who speaks.” Set in the tranquil heart of the desert, far from distractions, the annual high-level retreat offers a unique platform for candid conversations and open dialogues. Whether in plenary sessions or private meetings, participants had the opportunity to hear what was discussed behind closed doors.
The event, which has become one of the most important gatherings for free interaction between Arabs and the international community, continues to fulfil its founding goal of fostering open, constructive dialogue.
A wide range of topics were discussed, with a focus on the Israeli war on Gaza and its impact on Lebanon, the establishment of a Palestinian state, navigation in the Red Sea, Iran and regional intervention, Ukraine and the outcome of the war, and the conflict in Sudan.
Structure of Israeli power
The potential implications of electing Trump as US President for the region, the third Cold War, and armed groups (militias) operating outside the umbrella of the state were among the main topics of discussion, alongside several other side topics.
Speakers perceived that the ongoing war unites Israel, and there is little optimism about a near change within Israel, as a majority inside the country does not recognise Hamas or even the Palestinian Authority. However, there may be a shift in the structure of Israeli power after the war ends, as the Israelis have faced a costly conflict.
The dilemma facing Israel, as well as the next Trump administration, is the existence of seven million Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, and the ten Palestinian members of the Israeli Knesset representing nearly two million Palestinians inside Israel. These issues cannot be ignored, and any lasting peace must involve the Palestinians.
Regarding political action, what many countries hope for—namely, the establishment of a Palestinian state—can happen if favourable political conditions arise. What seems impossible today may become possible tomorrow. The late Ariel Sharon, who built settlements in Gaza, dismantled them in 2004.
A spokesman stated that “the true war waged by the Israeli government is against its people,” as most Israelis want the return of hostages held by Hamas, and the only way to achieve this is to stop the war, which Netanyahu rejects. Many Israelis also prefer withdrawing from Gaza and transferring its administration to a joint international administration alongside the Palestinian Liberation Organisation.
Deep economic problems
However, there is an opinion that the current Palestinian leadership, as viewed by Palestinian independents, is weak and unable to present a viable initiative. The proposed solution is to unite the ranks of Palestinian forces, a goal that all previous efforts have failed to achieve.
In the Lebanese arena, the pressure will be focussed on disarming Hezbollah, as this is the international goal to prevent the recurrence of conflict. Meanwhile, Iran does not expect a significant change in its position, but it will not be able to overcome its deep economic problems without establishing a good relationship with its neighbours and the US.
During the session on Sudan where senior African figures participated, the discussions highlighted a deadlock regarding any immediate prospects for resolution. The situation is expected to remain unchanged, if not deteriorate further.
Speakers during the session discussing expectations for the Middle East under the Trump administration in its initial months described it as “unpredictable” emphasising that it is still too early to determine the administration’s direction.
It is likely that the Trump administration’s priority will be to end the war in Lebanon under terms favourable to Israel. Experts suggest that this presents an opportunity to deepen and support the Saudi initiative advocating a two-state solution, which the new administration might pursue for two key reasons.
First, this term could be Trump’s last, despite his expressed interest in amending the constitution—a highly improbable scenario, and second is a potential personal ambition by Trump to secure the Nobel Peace Prize.
It is worth noting that the US economy is facing significant challenges and requires substantial efforts to reform its economic system, including recalibrating its relationship with China. China’s trade with African and Asian countries outpaces its trade with the US by a ratio of three to one.
Politically, expressing positive views about China in the US has become contentious, yet China remains a critical global player. For the first time, the cost of servicing the US national debt has surpassed the country’s defence budget, underscoring the gravity of the economic situation.
Notably, discussions about the impact of oil on international relations are no longer as prominent as they once were. As one expert remarked, “OPEC’s production is less influential today than it used to be” though investments by GCC sovereign funds remain highly valued in both the market and U.S. policy circles.
The points mentioned above reflect the writer’s impressions of the meeting, and the coverage of the topics may not be exhaustive. As one of the speakers aptly observed, “The first Cold War was peace without peace”, while today’s second Cold War could be described as “war without war”. Indeed, the outlook for international relations remains uncertain and clouded.
Mohammad Alrumaihi is an author and Professor of Political Sociology at Kuwait University
