Continued unrest has had catastrophic consequences on the humanitarian and economic situation in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen, leading to a rapid deterioration in living standards, loss of jobs and widespread labour migration, including of professionals and academics.
These countries have lost their human capital, which is one of the most important components of economies, especially after large numbers of highly qualified people have died from the internal conflicts in the last four years.
It is difficult to imagine these economies would ever recover, because the rebuilding process after the cessation of hostilities will be difficult and extremely costly.
Worse is that most of the skilled and professional manpower may not return, because they either got jobs in the current places where they are domiciled or as they are psychologically traumatised it would be difficult for them to return home with all the attendant memories.
In fact, this is an irreplaceable loss. Regional and international powers should be held responsible because they have contributed to the flaring up, such as Iran, which is seeking to regain its empire’s lost glories.
Tehran has so far spent hundreds of billions of dollars to prepare and fund its armed groups and militias in Arab countries like the Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Al Houthis in Yemen and those in Iraq, often referred to as popular but who are no different from other terrorist organisations such as Al Qaida and Daesh.
Tehran’s support for the Shiite militias is not a wise policy, and a waste of the wealth of the Iranian people who have suffered deterioration in living standards and unemployment that exceeds 35 per cent.
If the rest of the countries in the region adopted the same approach embraced by Tehran — of funding militias and they are financially capable of doing that — what would happen? It will turn the Middle East into a forest of monsters where there is neither security nor stability available. All countries will lose their national wealth and human capital that can be used to promote growth, create jobs and improve living standards.
Unemployment
In an indication of the disasters stemming from political disorder and unrest in the region, the director-general of the Arab Labour Organisation said the number of those unemployed in the troubled Arab countries have jumped from 2 million in 2011 to 20 million last year, constituting 30 per cent of its young peoples
The unemployment rate is estimated at 17 per cent in all Arab countries, which is more than three times that globally. The problem is getting worse because it would require growth rates of 6 per cent at least rather than the 2-3 per cent we see currently.
To achieve this, it is imperative for wise people in countries that finance militias, notably Iran, to realise that there is no future for such chauvinistic ambitions. And the right path lies in stability and economic cooperation.
The current conflict is not between Sunnis and Shias who have lived together for hundreds of years in peace, but between Iran — driven by its hegemonic ambitions and Arab countries with all components of their societies and sects defending their homelands.
But the fierce attack led by mullahs and the Guardianship of the Jurist — the dictatorial regime — clearly demonstrate Iran still lives in illusion that have nothing to do with our present times.
Ultimately, military operations and civil wars will come to an end. However, the legacy of economic devastation and sectarian strife fuelled by Iran’s oil revenues will not be wiped for many years.
If some oil-rich countries such as Iraq and Libya are able to use their resources in reconstruction, others such as Syria and Yemen would need a “Marshall Plan” with the support of other countries in the region and work together with the international community.
The GCC countries are preparing a $13 billion (Dh47.7 billion) programme — and involving the public and private sectors — to rebuild Yemen, which could contribute to growth rates and reduce unemployment and integrate the countries into the global economic order.
Dr Mohammad Al Asoomi is a UAE economic expert and specialist in economic and social development in the UAE and the GCC countries.
