Philippines 'baby bust': Birth rate plunges as rising costs, power woes and digital lifestyles reshape family life

MANILA: The Philippines' fertility rate has fallen to a record low, marking one of the fastest demographic transitions ever recorded for a populous developing nation and signalling profound economic and social changes that could reshape the country's future workforce.

Demographers say the trend reflects more than changing family preferences.

It mirrors a broader transformation driven by economic pressures, urbanisation, higher educational attainment, delayed marriage, greater access to contraception and shifting lifestyles.

"The Philippines is joining much of East and Southeast Asia in having smaller families become the norm," the PSA said in releasing the results of its 2025 National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS).

Education, geography

Women with higher education and higher household incomes consistently had fewer children than those with less schooling or lower incomes.

Geography is also a factor. For example, while the TFR is 1.7 for the rest of the country, the CALABARZON region's TFR is lowest at 1.3.

TFR measures the average number of children a woman would have over her lifetime based on current age-specific fertility rates.

However, some model-based estimates (e.g., Macrotrends) project higher figures because they use different methodologies and lag behind survey data.

The PSA NDHS is the authoritative national source for these trends.

Economic realities changing family decisions

Economists say the rising cost of raising children has become one of the strongest deterrents to larger families.

Persistent inflation over recent years has increased household spending on food, housing, healthcare, education and transport. Many young Filipinos also face insecure employment, stagnant wages relative to living costs and high housing prices, leading many couples to postpone marriage or decide to have only one child—or none at all.

The trend is particularly evident among middle-income households, where parents increasingly prioritise investing more resources in fewer children.

Energy insecurity adds another financial burden

Beyond inflation, unreliable electricity especially in the provinces, remains a significant challenge in many parts of the Philippines, especially outside major urban centres.

Provincial households and businesses continue to contend with recurring brownouts, voltage fluctuations and some of Southeast Asia's highest electricity prices.

Energy economists note that unreliable power raises the cost of doing business, discourages investment, kills job creation and squeezes household budgets.

For many young families, higher electricity bills — combined with the need to purchase backup generators, batteries or other coping mechanisms in areas with unstable power — have become another factor influencing long-term financial planning.

Researchers have increasingly linked economic uncertainty, including housing affordability, employment insecurity and high utility costs, with declining fertility across both developed and developing economies.

The digital generation

Social changes are also reshaping family formation.

Young Filipinos are spending more time online than almost any other population in the world. Smartphones, social media, streaming platforms, online gaming and digital entertainment have transformed daily life, relationships and leisure.

Key PSA/NDHS data (from official releases and reporting):

• Urban total fertility rate (TFR): ~1.5

• Rural TFR: ~2.0 (both down sharply since 1993).

• Regional variation exists (e.g., lowest in CALABARZON at 1.3).

While there is no conclusive scientific evidence that gadget use directly causes lower fertility, researchers have found that increased digital engagement is associated with later marriage, delayed childbearing, changing relationship patterns and evolving personal priorities in many countries.

The effects appear to be indirect, operating through lifestyle changes rather than technology itself.

Demographic 'turning point'

A fertility rate below replacement level does not mean the Philippine population will immediately begin shrinking.

Because the country still has a relatively young population, total population growth is expected to continue for years through demographic momentum.

However, if fertility remains persistently below replacement level, the Philippines will eventually face challenges already confronting countries such as Japan, South Korea and parts of Europe:

• An ageing population;

• A shrinking working-age labour force;

• Higher healthcare and pension costs;

• Labour shortages in key industries; and

• Slower long-term economic growth unless productivity rises or migration offsets the decline.

The Commission on Population and Development has urged policymakers to treat the demographic shift not only as a population issue but also as an opportunity to invest more heavily in education, healthcare and workforce skills to maximise the country's demographic dividend while it still has a relatively young population.

'New normal'

For now, the PSA data paints a picture of a nation undergoing a quiet but historic transformation: from the large families that characterised the Philippines for generations to a future in which one or two children increasingly become the new normal.