Three's a crowd with deposed PM back in country

Islamabad: There was a time when Pakistan wasn't big enough for the three of them.

Nawaz Sharif came back on Sunday, Benazir Bhutto came back last month, and in between, President Pervez Musharraf declared emergency rule, triggering an avalanche of criticism at home and from Western allies.

Musharraf has spent most of the eight years since he seized power in a coup trying to keep former prime ministers Bhutto and Sharif out.

But his attempt to re-engineer a polity sundered by the 1999 military takeover has ended in defeat.

"Politically he's always been in blunder-land," said Nasim Zehra, an independent analyst who nevertheless credits Musharraf with doing well on the economic and foreign policy fronts.

He will be sworn in for a second five-year term later this week, after quitting as army chief.

Receding support

How long he holds the presidency depends on whether polls called for January 8 return a hostile or a friendly parliament.

Once back as a civilian, Musharraf's support from the army will recede, and his chances of being overthrown will increase, analysts say.

Sharif, the prime minister he deposed in 1999, has far more to gain than Bhutto if Musharraf falls, which explains why he would like to see the ousted judges re-instated.

"Nawaz would probably be the sole beneficiary," said Najam Sethi, editor of the Daily Times and a leading political analyst.

"For him, coming back is the first step, second step is to get into parliament, third step is to try and overthrow Musharraf and the fourth step is to get back as prime minister."

While Sharif wants to reclaim his power base in Punjab, the richest of Pakistan's four provinces, Bhutto has a real shot at power if her party gets enough votes.

She can become "either prime minister or a very serious coalition partner with Musharraf", Sethi said.

Musharraf and Bhutto share common liberal outlooks, are regarded as pro-West and are seen as leaders who could form a bulwark against rising Islamist militancy threatening to destabilise nuclear-armed Pakistan.

For years Musharraf denounced Sharif and Bhutto as corrupt, but he included Bhutto in an amnesty that allowed her to come home in October, while at the same time excluding Sharif from the order he issued in the interest of national reconciliation.

Both Bhutto and Musharraf are seen as prime assassination targets for Al Qaida-inspired militants but the more conservative Sharif is not.