Officials estimate flood damage at $9.5b

Karachi: Pakistan's recent floods inflicted $9.5 billion (Dh34.8 billion) in damage to property, crops and infrastructure, according to an Asian Development Bank and World Bank assessment, Finance Ministry officials said yesterday.

Aside from trying to cope with that direct damage, the government may face total recovery costs of $30 billion, Finance Ministry officials said, although they had not seen the report.

If that figure of total costs proves correct, it will likely disappoint the government, which had estimated damage at $43 billion. The lower estimate will probably mean less aid.

Pakistan may not be able to manage billions of dollars of financial support needed for reconstruction, a reality that worries the United States, which wants stability in an ally seen as vital in its war on militancy.

The government is often preoccupied by one crisis after another, from feuding politicians to waves of Muslim militant suicide bombings to showdowns with the powerful Supreme Court.

If aid money does not reach millions of flood-victims soon, unpopular Pakistani leaders will lose more credibility, and Taliban insurgents may capitalise on hardship to gain recruits.

"We will prioritise our total budget. We will not wait for the world to give us or not give us [aid]. We will provide whatever funds are needed to give homes to homeless people," Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani told a rally.

Amnesty law

At the heart of Pakistan's latest turmoil is an amnesty law that allowed some politicians to return after years of exile but which was thrown out in December 2009 by the Supreme Court.

If the Supreme Court rejects a government appeal against the overturning of the law, which is likely, that could open the door to attempts to prosecute government leaders, including President Asif Ali Zardari.

Maria Kuusisto, an analyst at the Eurasia Group, said the government was weighed down by a familiar set of problems.

Structural tensions between the civilian leadership, the bureaucracy and the military, were exacerbated by the floods. An inherent lack of institutional capacity because of different political agendas. A tight budget. Endemic corruption.

"The government is not very focused," she said. "It's constantly dealing with political tensions. And it doesn't have adequate resources."

The floods, which began in late July, left more than 10 million people homeless and affected 20 million, and devastated an already fragile economy.