India-UAE $100b non-oil trade goal ‘within reach’, says Modi advisor

Doubling non-oil, non-precious metals trade between India and the UAE to $100 billion in the next three to four years is “absolutely achievable”, said Professor Gaurav Vallabh, a member of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Economic Advisory Council.
Vallabh told Gulf News that the strong bilateral relationship, a large Indian diaspora in the UAE and the Global South framework outlined by Modi make this target “realistic”.
“CEPA was only the starting point – removing tariff barriers opens the gate, but frictions beyond tariffs need constant resolution. Both countries are committed, and I am confident we will reach this $100 billion target,” he said, noting that small frictions do arise in trade.

“To overcome them efficiently, I suggest forming an empowered group that can resolve such issues in real time,” he said on the sidelines of Future Food 2025 in Dubai.

‘CEPA is just the beginning’

The Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA), signed in 2022, has boosted India-UAE trade flows.
“CEPA is just the beginning, not the end. Reducing tariffs alone won’t take us where we need to go.”
He said the focus now should be on building deeper trade relationships, strengthening supply chains and aligning regulatory environments.
“What matters next is trade density.”

Key sectors for growth

Vallabh identified three sectors that could play a decisive role in achieving the trade goal.

Food and beverages, and agriculture: The UAE has pledged $2 billion for food parks in India, which he said must be operationalised quickly. India’s agricultural capacity and the UAE’s global hub status in food distribution make the sector a natural fit.

Technology: With India’s talent pool and the UAE’s investments in AI, robotics and quantum technologies since 2017, Vallabh highlighted that there is “great potential” for convergence.

Tourism: He pointed to synergies between the UAE’s geographic position as a global hub and India’s heritage, medical and religious tourism strengths.

Shared visions

On the wider impact, Vallabh said the trade expansion would align with both UAE Vision 2031 and India’s Viksit Bharat 2047 goals. India, currently the world’s fourth-largest economy, is projected to become the third largest by 2028, with growth of 6.5-7 per cent and inflation under control, he noted.

“Strengthening trade will benefit both nations and set an example for the Global South on how partnerships can drive prosperity,” Vallabh added.