Karthik Subbaraj on why Tamil cinema doesn't have a Rs 10 billion film yet: 'Can't plan for magic'

Jailer 2 has just become the biggest Tamil film ever made, yet the industry still has not reached the box-office figure that Hindi, Telugu and Kannada cinema have all crossed. Asked why, filmmaker Karthik Subbaraj says the question itself misreads how blockbusters happen.

A milestone no one can engineer

The director behind Pizza, Jigarthanda and Petta argues that Rs 1,000 crore isn’t a target a producer can set and then hit. In his view, any Tamil filmmaker who starts a project determined to reach that number is setting themselves up to fall short.

He believes the films that did get there never started with that goal. The teams behind KGF and Pushpa, he suggests, were simply chasing a major hit. What carried them further was audiences around the world embracing the films, with collections growing week after week. “It is magic. And you cannot plan for magic to happen,” he said, as quoted by the Indian Express.

The numbers behind the debate

The question comes up often, and the data shows why. As of October 2026, the Indian films in the Rs 1,000 crore worldwide club are Dangal, Baahubali 2: The Conclusion, KGF: Chapter 2, RRR, Pushpa 2: The Rule, Jawan, Pathaan, Kalki 2898 AD and the Dhurandhar franchise. None of them is in Tamil.

Kollywood is getting closer, though. Jailer 2 had collected more than Rs 755 crore worldwide by the end of its second week and is still in theatres. Its run so far:

• Pre-release: Advance bookings brought in Rs 57.30 crore from 29.69 lakh tickets sold across 31,812 screens.

• Day 1: Rs 59.70 crore net in India from 16,599 shows, well ahead of the first Jailer’s Rs 48.35 crore opening.

• Week 1: More than Rs 542 crore worldwide.

• Day 11: It passed 2.0’s roughly Rs 691 crore to set a new Tamil record.

• Day 12: Domestic net crossed Rs 400 crore, reaching Rs 406.08 crore.

Rajinikanth now holds the top three Tamil grossers: Jailer 2, then 2.0, then the original Jailer at about Rs 604 crore.

The film that might have been

Vijay’s Jana Nayagan shows how much can go wrong outside a filmmaker’s control. It was promoted as the actor’s 69th and final film before he moved fully into politics, and was due on January 9, 2026. It missed that date after failing to get CBFC certification in time. On April 9 the film leaked online, and pirated copies circulated for months before the producers could pursue legal action.

When it finally opened on July 23, Vijay had already been Tamil Nadu’s Chief Minister for about two and a half months, and piracy had badly damaged its theatrical prospects. It still opened to around Rs 50 crore gross in India and Rs 183 crore worldwide on its first day, and finished at Rs 325 crore worldwide.

Where Subbaraj is now

Subbaraj’s most recent work includes Retro, starring Suriya, and the independent film Dorothy, which premiered at TIFF 2026.