UAE travellers are adjusting to US, Schengen visa delays, rising costs: Here's how

Dubai: Dubai’s outbound travel market is entering a phase where predictable seasonal cycles no longer exist, forcing residents to rethink both how much they budget and when they lock in bookings.

Travel demand now stretches across most months of the year, blurring traditional “peak” and “off-peak” periods and pushing travellers to commit earlier to flights and hotels.

Across the Gulf, activity remains elevated for most of the calendar, with only narrow windows of softer demand. Executives at Dragonpass, which tracks airport and travel-services usage, report consistent lounge and premium-service engagement even in months that historically were slower, highlighting how frequently UAE residents are now on the move.

That constant mobility is feeding into booking behaviour. Families and professionals are initiating planning far earlier than in previous years, while both long-haul and short-haul routes are seeing pricing pressure well ahead of departure dates.

Visas now shape travel budget

Visa timelines, once treated as a checklist item, have moved to the centre of travel budgeting. US visa appointment backlogs that widened through 2024 and 2025 continue to delay travel plans, forcing UAE residents to rethink how far in advance they must begin applications.

Alena Iakina, founder of visa insights platform Visarun.ai, says travellers increasingly treat visa timing as a constraint that influences when they buy tickets and how much they reserve for potential changes. In Europe, persistent congestion at German and other Schengen consulates has extended processing cycles, making it harder to align approvals with fixed travel dates.

Visarun.ai’s data shows appointment wait times vary widely by season and consulate, underscoring that uncertainty is measurable. Travellers are responding by securing visa slots before locking in expensive bookings and shifting toward budgets that explicitly include visa-risk buffers.

Where fliers are going in 2026

Internal data from Visarun.ai and early 2025 booking patterns point to a concentrated set of routes that will dominate outbound travel in 2026:

• India (14–16%) – The UAE’s largest travel market, supported by nearly $75 billion in bilateral trade and a 3.47 million-strong resident community. Demand runs year-round, limiting seasonal fare dips.

• Saudi Arabia (12–14%) – A high-frequency regional corridor as Dubai–Riyadh services increasingly operate like shuttle routes, driven by dense commercial and government travel.

• China (10–12%) – Growing executive and trade-linked movement as the UAE deepens its commercial pivot toward Asia.

• Germany (12.6% of Schengen travel) – Europe’s leading destination from the UAE, with strong industrial and exhibition ties but persistent visa appointment congestion.

• United States (8–10%) and UK (6–8%) – Investment-driven long-haul demand anchored by finance, technology, and education links.

• Growth markets – Japan, Egypt, and Turkey (3–5% each), plus accelerating Latin American routes led by Brazil, with forecast growth exceeding 40%.

These routes are shaping airline pricing, hotel demand, and the level of visa exposure travellers must build into budgets.

6 practical travel budget tips

Frequent travellers and corporate mobility teams are formalising new approaches that treat visa risk as a financial variable rather than an afterthought.

1. Start with dates, then work backward.
   Fix travel windows first, then map document preparation, visa submission, and interview targets, padding timelines beyond official guidance for congested destinations.

2. Split budgets into clear blocks.
   Separate spending into visa costs and buffers, flights and potential change fees, accommodation with cancellation windows, and a contingency reserve.

3. Carry a visa-risk buffer.
   Travellers increasingly set aside several hundred dollars per person to absorb rebooking charges, documentation services, or appointment shifts.

4. Delay non-refundable exposure.
   Flexible fares and cancellable hotels cost more upfront, but often protect against far larger losses if approvals arrive late.

5. Secure consular steps before committing flights.
   Interview confirmation is becoming the trigger point for major ticket purchases.

6. Track real-time signals.
   Appointment availability tools and airline capacity updates now influence when travellers release funds.

What this looks like in practice

A September business trip to Munich now often begins with securing a Schengen appointment months in advance, followed by refundable airfares until approvals are underway.

A November family holiday to New York increasingly involves US visa applications early in the year, with hotels and flights layered in gradually as interview dates are confirmed.

For summer trips to India, where visa friction is lower for many residents, travellers still lock seats early, but keep smaller change reserves to absorb airline schedule shifts.

What this means for your plans

Travel demand from the UAE remains strong across India, Saudi Arabia, China, Europe, the US, and the UK, while emerging markets add long-haul complexity. Persistent visa delays are changing how travellers allocate money and time, pushing budgets toward flexibility, sequencing, and risk control.

The shift underway moves planning away from bargain-hunting and toward exposure management. For UAE residents heading out this 2026, the travel budget is no longer just a cost list — it is a timeline strategy.