UAE property buyers stay in the market despite regional tensions

Dubai: UAE property buyers are taking longer to make decisions as regional uncertainty weighs on sentiment, with nearly 45% of market participants still planning to buy a home within the next 12 months.

The bigger signal for buyers is that this slowdown is not being driven by distressed owners rushing to sell. More than 60% of existing property owners plan to hold or expand their portfolios over the next six months, while only around 4% are considering selling.

That is keeping the market from turning into a broad discount cycle, even as buyers become more selective on location, pricing, delivery timelines and long-term value.

The findings come from Savills Middle East’s latest UAE Residential Investor Sentiment Survey, conducted among investors, end-users, landlords, tenants and prospective residents. The survey shows that regional geopolitical developments have introduced caution and delayed decisions, but have not pushed buyers out of the market.

Buyers want certainty

A further 32% of respondents remain undecided about property purchases, pointing to a longer consideration period instead of a clear drop in interest.

Completed homes are becoming more attractive in this environment. Around 60% of respondents said they prefer ready properties, compared with roughly 23% who favour off-plan units, reflecting a stronger focus on delivery certainty, pricing visibility and immediate usability.

“While regional developments have understandably introduced a degree of caution into the market, the data clearly shows that demand remains intact," said Andrew Cummings, Head of Residential Agency at Savills Middle East. "What we are seeing is a shift in behaviour rather than a drop in interest, buyers are taking more time, becoming more selective and focusing on fundamentals such as location, quality and long-term value.”

The buyer base is also becoming more end-user led, with demand supported by owner-occupiers and long-term investors instead of short-term speculation.

Sellers are holding firm

The absence of widespread selling pressure is helping support pricing across several segments, although the gap between buyer expectations and seller demands has widened.

“At the same time, the absence of widespread selling pressure reflects continued confidence among existing property owners, many of whom are well-positioned following the strong performance seen in recent years,” Cummings said. “As a result, the market is moving towards a more balanced and sustainable phase, rather than experiencing any structural correction.”

Pricing sentiment has changed, with more than 80% of respondents expecting prices to either soften or remain stable over the next 12 months, leading to longer transaction timelines, more negotiation, and a more selective approach from buyers.

Supply remains a concern, with more than 60% of respondents believing that a high volume of new units is entering the market. Apartments are likely to be more sensitive to that supply than villas and townhouses.

Dubai sales remain high

Dubai’s residential market is already showing that split between caution and continued capital flow.

The emirate recorded 44,493 residential transactions in the first quarter of 2026, up 4% year-on-year, according to betterhomes. Total transaction value rose 21% to Dh139.2 billion, while volumes fell 17% quarter-on-quarter, reflecting slower decision-making in March.

Off-plan remained the main driver of activity, accounting for 68% of total transactions. Off-plan volumes rose 20% year-on-year, while off-plan transaction value increased 35%. Secondary transactions fell 19% year-on-year, showing greater pricing sensitivity in the ready market.

“Given the regional developments in March, some moderation in decision-making was expected,"| said Louis Harding, CEO of betterhomes. "What matters is that the underlying data still points to a resilient market. Transactions were up 4% year-on-year, while total value increased 21% to Dh139.2 billion. Activity has become more measured, but capital continues to move, which points to a market becoming more disciplined rather than losing momentum.”

Villas and prime homes hold up

Buyer behaviour is changing by property type. Enquiries declined 18% year-on-year in the first quarter, but demand moved towards larger and higher-value homes. Villa and townhouse enquiries rose 15%, while apartment enquiries fell 31%.

Investors accounted for 57% of transactions, up from 50% in the first quarter of 2025.

The prime segment continued to outperform, with transactions above Dh15 million rising 43% year-on-year to 1,214 deals, supported by an 84% increase in off-plan prime transactions.

Leasing has become more competitive. Enquiries rose 7% year-on-year, but transactions fell 5% year-on-year and 26% quarter-on-quarter, as increased supply and more selective tenant behaviour slowed deal conversion. New-let apartment prices across prime communities declined 10% to 20% year-on-year, creating a gap between what existing tenants are paying and what new tenants are negotiating.

April activity rebounds

Dubai’s real estate market showed further resilience in April, recording 13,977 sales transactions worth Dh48 billion, according to fäm Properties.

Sales volume rose 3.5% from March, while total sales value increased 10.7%. Primary sales again dominated, with 10,563 transactions worth Dh35.8 billion, compared with 3,414 resales valued at Dh12.2 billion.

Commercial property delivered the strongest growth, with 561 office and shop transactions worth Dh4 billion, up 33.9% year-on-year and 36.2% month-on-month. Apartment sales rose 6.5% month-on-month to 11,377 transactions worth Dh24.1 billion, while plot sales climbed 34.7% to 237 deals worth Dh6.6 billion.

“Last month’s performance reflects the market’s underlying strength, with steady demand across both residential and commercial segments," said Firas Al Msaddi, CEO of fäm Properties.

“Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions, Dubai is benefiting from its reputation as a stable, transparent and well-regulated environment for investment. The continued dominance of primary sales also points to long-term confidence in the emirate’s growth and development pipeline.”

Market gets more selective

The UAE residential market is moving into a more balanced phase after a long period of strong growth. Regional and geopolitical uncertainty has become the main barrier to market entry for many buyers, outweighing traditional concerns such as pricing or financing, according to Savills.

Near-term activity is expected to remain more deliberate, with softer transaction volumes and tougher negotiation in some segments. Secondary apartments may face greater pressure, while villas and prime residential assets are expected to remain more resilient.

The market is still attracting buyers, but the easy-money phase has cooled. Sellers with realistic pricing, strong locations and completed or higher-quality assets are likely to remain better placed as buyers take more time before committing.