UAE fuel prices for May out today: Petrol, diesel costs to rise as oil surges?

Dubai: UAE motorists are unlikely to see a sharp drop in fuel prices for May, with rates set to be announced later today, even as global oil markets surge again.

Crude has jumped sharply—adding fresh upward pressure, but too late to significantly alter May fuel prices.

• Brent crude has surged to $119.69 per barrel, up 7.6% on Wednesday

• This marks its highest level since early 2022, during the early phase of the Ukraine war

• Prices have now climbed sharply from roughly $70 before the conflict, with repeated spikes above $119

This latest rally comes as Iran has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments.

How UAE fuel costs will change

The UAE sets fuel prices based on the average oil price over the previous month, creating a lag effect:

• April prices reflected March’s sharp spike

• May prices are based on April averages, which were lower than current levels

Likely direction for May:

• Petrol prices: stable or slightly lower

• Diesel: likely to remain elevated

• Overall trend: no repeat of April surge, but limited relief, with current market strength unlikely to reverse May prices higher at this stage

Despite oil nearing $120 again, May pricing is effectively locked in by April averages, meaning the current surge will have a stronger impact on June prices.

Why prices won't fall faster

Oil had eased earlier, but the latest developments have reversed that trend. The Strait of Hormuz is now effectively constrained, disrupting tanker movement through a route that carries about 20% of global oil supply. This has tightened global flows and pushed prices sharply higher.

There is little clarity on resolution. While Iran has linked reopening the Strait to changes in US policy, there are no signs of a breakthrough. Markets are reacting to supply disruption rather than diplomatic progress.

At the same time, supply risks are not absolute. Iran has continued exporting crude despite restrictions, with shipments still finding ways to move through the region. This suggests flows are disrupted, but not entirely halted.

What happens after a spike

Past UAE pricing cycles show a consistent pattern:

• Sharp increases are followed by partial pullbacks, not immediate reversals

• Prices stabilise over one to two months before a clearer trend emerges

• Diesel often lags on the downside due to tighter global supply

That points to May acting as a holding phase, even as markets heat up again.

Scenarios for May fuel prices

For May:

• Prices reflect April averages

• Rates remain stable or slightly lower

For June:

• Oil staying near or above $110–$120 could push prices higher

• Continued disruption in Hormuz would sustain upward pressure

When costs could ease:

• Shipping through Hormuz normalises

• Diplomatic progress reduces supply risks

• Oil retreats from current highs

What motorists should watch

The direction now hinges on oil flow stability and how long current disruptions last. Focus areas:

• Whether Brent holds near $110–$120

• Developments around the Strait of Hormuz

• Any progress in geopolitical negotiations

April reflected the peak shock. May will show whether markets stabilise—or remain under pressure, while June pricing will more fully reflect the latest oil market rebound.