IMF says AI could transform economic policy, posing new opportunities and risks for workers, countries, and businesses

Artificial intelligence could transform productivity, investment, labour markets, and economic policy, posing new opportunities and risks for workers, countries, and businesses, according to the 2026 Annual Report, Navigating a Precarious World, released by IMF today.

In 2025, technology investments related to AI added an estimated 0.5 percentage point to US GDP growth. In addition, productivity growth in the US has accelerated over the past several years, which may in part reflect early impacts from the adoption of AI. Private-sector-driven investment in AI could top $2 trillion globally in 2026, according to some external estimates, making it among the fastest-growing drivers of growth in recent years.

As global spending shifts to deploying this technology across sectors, AI-driven productivity gains could accelerate across a broad range of industries and occupations.

But risks remain. Policymakers, households, and businesses are increasingly concerned about how AI will transform labour markets — it could increasingly displace jobs and depress wages for certain segments of the workforce.

IMF research shows that people with jobs requiring AI-related skills earn more, but cities and regions with more of these jobs are not experiencing overall job growth. Workers with AI skills are benefiting. So are people in low-skill roles — such as restaurant staff — who provide services to higher earners. Left out are middle-skilled workers whose jobs are highly exposed to automation.

The IMF is helping members guard against the economic, financial stability, and fiscal risks that could emanate from an AI bust — especially where debt is already high — while still robustly pursuing its benefits.