Venezuela won’t move oil markets in 2026, TotalEnergies CEO says

Abu Dhabi: Venezuela’s vast oil reserves may dominate headlines, but they are unlikely to shift global oil markets any time soon, according to Patrick Pouyanné, Chairman and CEO of TotalEnergies.

Speaking during a fireside chat at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, Pouyanné said the country’s heavy crude, infrastructure constraints and capital requirements make rapid production growth unrealistic.

“Heavy crude oil requires a lot of CapEx investments,” he said. “If you think about one million barrels per day, it will require $100 billion. This will have to be mobilised.”

Venezuela, which once produced about three million barrels a day, now pumps less than one million. A partial recovery is possible, but Pouyanné cautioned against expecting quick results. “Yes, we can come back to three, but it will take years,” he said, adding that he was “not convinced it will have a direct impact on the market in 2026”.

Frameworks matter more than reserves

Despite Venezuela’s estimated 300 billion barrels of oil, Pouyanné said investment decisions depend less on geology and more on conditions on the ground.

“It’s not only drilling,” he said. “The heavy oil cannot be transported. You need dilution. So it’s a complex system.”

TotalEnergies previously operated in Venezuela but exited due to safety concerns. Any return would require clarity on regulation, emissions management and security. “The framework needs to be clear,” Pouyanné said. “I will tell you the truth, it is not on my agenda.”

AI is reshaping energy demand

From Venezuela, the conversation quickly widened to a bigger structural shift reshaping energy markets. Pouyanné said artificial intelligence and data centres are accelerating electricity demand far beyond earlier forecasts.

“When I became CEO, we said the 21st century will be the century of electricity,” he said. “All that is what is happening today, and it is going quicker because of this AI revolution.”

Data centres require uninterrupted, highly reliable power, something intermittent renewables cannot provide on their own. Pouyanné said this reality explains why gas-fired power, batteries and renewables are increasingly being combined.

“The way to do that is to combine renewables with gas-fired power plants,” he said. “This is what we call clean firm power.”

Why gas still matters

Gas remains central to TotalEnergies’ strategy, both as a lower-carbon fuel and as a stabiliser for renewable-heavy grids. Pouyanné said oil and gas companies are structurally well-positioned to supply power-hungry data centres because they already own dispatchable generation assets.

“We need more energy, energy addition,” he said. “We need more energy for AI.”

Investor scepticism toward diversified energy models, he argued, may be easing. TotalEnergies shares rose nearly 10% after announcing a $6 billion acquisition of gas-fired power plants in Europe, a move Pouyanné said validated the company’s direction.

Africa’s constraints limit data centre growth

Africa presents a different challenge. While TotalEnergies is active across oil, gas and renewables on the continent, Pouyanné said weak grid reliability limits the near-term potential for large-scale data centre investment.

“It’s more complex in Africa,” he said. “The reliability of the grid is not there.”

Gas production and gas-fired power plants are expanding, but data centres remain an early-stage opportunity, with Europe, the US and Brazil currently offering better economics and infrastructure.

Renewables still in the mix

Pouyanné pushed back against the idea that investment is shifting away from renewables. Capital flowing into solar, wind, batteries, and nuclear has exceeded spending on traditional oil and gas in recent years, he noted.

“We are not moving out,” he said. “What should drive us is affordable electricity.”

Solar, in particular, remains attractive due to shorter build times. In Texas, Pouyanné said, solar plants can be delivered in 18 months, far faster than new gas-fired facilities.

TotalEnergies continues to invest $3 billion to $4 billion a year in green energy, aiming to quadruple power generation capacity by 2040. “We managed to go from zero to 50 terawatt hours,” Pouyanné said. “Continuing the path requires consistency of strategy.”