Airfares to rise again as US-Israel-Iran war pushes jet fuel prices up 121%

Dubai: Holidaymakers across the Middle East are facing a harsh reality this summer: flying is about to get significantly more expensive. While the skies over the Gulf are finally clearing, the financial fallout of the recent regional conflict is only just beginning to hit consumers.

The biggest threat to your summer travel budget is the skyrocketing cost of operating an aircraft. The disruption to global trade and oil supplies has sent jet fuel prices surging by an eye-watering 121.1 per cent year-on-year in April, alongside a 77.7 per cent increase in crude oil prices, according to the International Air Transport Association’s (IATA) April passenger and cargo performance reports.

The massive spike in operational costs is being passed directly onto the consumer.

Willie Walsh, the Director General of IATA, said, “The cost of jet fuel more than doubled in April, which is pushing airfares up. Forward schedule data is showing a reduced offering in the coming months, indicating that airlines are balancing high fuel costs and weaker demand".

With fewer seats available and airlines desperate to cover their fuel bills, passengers should expect to pay a premium for their tickets.

The volatility comes after months of severe disruption across major Gulf transit hubs, as the US-Israel-Iran war forced commercial airlines to drastically reshape international trade routes.

Passenger demand plummets

Middle Eastern airlines experienced a 46.6 per cent year-on-year drop in passenger demand in April 2026. This collapse in the Middle East also dragged the entire global passenger market down into a 3.4 per cent contraction.

However, there seems to be a silver lining. The numbers also mark a noticeable improvement from March, when Middle Eastern carriers suffered a devastating 59.2 per cent year-on-year crash in overall traffic.

Excluding the Middle East, global air travel demand remained resilient in April, led by Latin America (+8.9 per cent) and Asia-Pacific (+3 per cent), while Europe posted modest growth of 0.9 per cent and North America was flat.

Asia-Pacific airlines recorded a record April load factor of 87.5 per cent, although traffic between Japan and China slowed due to political tensions. European carriers benefited from a 15.3 per cent rise in direct Europe-Asia traffic as travellers avoided Middle East transit routes. African carriers reported a 2.2 per cent increase in demand.

UAE operations

Despite the sting of higher airfares, the operational chaos that defined the early spring is largely over for UAE travellers. On May 2, the UAE’s General Civil Aviation Authority officially lifted all temporary precautionary measures, allowing for the full resumption of air traffic operations.

Dubai’s flagship carrier, Emirates, is back in full force. The airline is currently operating flights to 137 destinations across 72 countries. UAE’s national carrier Etihad Airways is operating flights to 80 destinations across the Middle East, Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe and North America.

However, given the high airfares, travel agents and industry experts are strongly recommending passengers book flights at least a month or two before their planned travel dates for best rates.