Will India qualify for the semifinals of the Women’s T20 World Cup cricket?

India finally found their groove in the Women’s T20 World Cup. The big win over Sri Lanka, built on half-centuries from captain Harmanpreet Kaur and Smriti Mandhana, has increased their chances of making the semifinals. But that’s still not a certainty.

Wednesday’s 82-run victory — the biggest of the tournament — not only increased India’s net run rate (NNR) but also lifted their morale. More importantly, it would have injected dollops of self-belief into the team. That was lacking in the cautious win over Pakistan, which came after the drubbing from New Zealand.

India now boast an NRR of 0.576, which places them second in Group A behind Australia, the only unbeaten team with four points from two matches and a whopping run rate of 2.524. The defending champions look good to seal a last-four spot with ease, although they still have to play India and Pakistan.

India, Pakistan and New Zealand in semifinal race

There are three teams angling for the second semifinal place from the group. India are in a good position to land it, and that would mean a good score against the might of Australia. That isn’t easy since the fixture is at Sharjah Cricket Stadium, where the pitch doesn’t lend itself to tall scores. Australia’s 148 in the rout of New Zealand was the best, while the average score tend to be around 120.

That makes India’s job on Sunday (October 13) difficult. Spinners have called the shots in Sharjah, although Australian pacers Megan Schutt and Annabel Croft led the Aussie charge on a green-tinged pitched against their Trans-Tasman rivals on Tuesday. But much damage was inflicted on New Zealand after spinners Sophie Molineux, Ashleigh Gardner and Georgie Wareham applied the squeeze.

India’s prospects will depend on how they negotiate the Aussie spin. The form of Mandhana and Harmanpreet gives plenty of hope, but opener Shafali Verma is still struggling with her timing despite the good scores. But the key batter will be Jemimah Rodrigues, who can take the fight to the spinners.

India shouldn’t overlook the menace of Aussie pace. Schutt, who became the leading wicket-taker in World Cup history with 44 from 26 matches, leads the attack, and Sutherland takes over from her. So Mandhana and Verma have to take them on in the powerplay; it isn’t easy but has to be done. The first six overs will decide the match’s fate and even the semifinal lineup.

India are not the only team in the semifinal race. True, Sri Lanka’s chances have evaporated with three losses from three games, but Pakistan and New Zealand are still in the mix.

Pakistan are in third place in the group with an NRR of 0.555, but they are yet to face six-time winners Australia. Friday’s encounter will give a fair idea of their chances, but it depends more on how they score against New Zealand on Monday (October 14). The last match in the group will decide the second semifinalists, assuming that Australia will waltz into the last four.

The decider on Monday

But before that, New Zealand gets a chance on Saturday to salvage their run rate, which plunged to -0.050 after a bruising defeat at the hands of the Alyssa Healy-led Australia. The Kiwis will look at the Sri Lanka game as an opportunity to rev up their run rate before they take on a strong Pakistan spin attack on Monday.

On current form, New Zealand could win against Sri Lanka and Pakistan, giving them a healthy NRR to make the knockout phase. A stumble against either team would mean a possible exit. It could happen. India would be praying for that.

Monday will be critical for Pakistan and New Zealand. So also India. Interesting games ahead!