Kashmir votes: A wildcard candidate and a region's uncertain future
Jammu and Kashmir goes to polls amid speculation, security fears, and surprise challenger
All eyes are on the Union Territory (UT) of Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), where assembly elections, after ten long years, are ongoing. The votes will be counted on 8 October, with the entire nation, and indeed the world, watching not only for the free and fair conduct of the polls but also for the much-anticipated outcome.
Many believe these elections, in which 90 seats are up for grabs, might be a prelude to the restoration of statehood to the region. More importantly, they will serve as a referendum on Narendra Modi and Amit Shah’s repeal of Article 370 of the Constitution, which conferred special status on J&K. After its abrogation, J&K was divided into two UTs, the other being Ladakh.
We may recall that the Lok Sabha or general elections to the centre, held earlier this year, produced quite a few surprises. Legacy parties such as the Farooq Abdullah-led National Conference (NC) and the Mehbooba Mufti-led People’s Democratic Party (PDP) both performed poorly.
Healthy return to democracy
Of the five seats allocated to the state, the PDP, which contested three, won none. In the Jammu region, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which leads the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) government at the centre, won both seats.
The NC, alongside Congress, contested all five seats as part of the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (I.N.D.I.A). Congress won none, while the NC took the Srinagar and Anantnag-Rajouri seats. Voter turnout, at 58.46%, indicated a healthy return to democracy in the conflict-torn region.
But the biggest upset of these elections was in Baramulla, where Omar Abdullah, the NC scion and son of party president Farooq Abdullah, contested — and lost. To whom? To an independent, Abdul Rashid Sheikh, popularly known as “Engineer” Rashid.
Rashid secured 45.7% of the votes, defeating Abdullah by a margin of over 200,000 votes. What made his victory even more remarkable was that Rashid was in jail during the elections. He contested “in absentia,” yet won convincingly.
Rashid is no stranger to J&K politics. He had twice won from the Langate constituency in the now-defunct J&K state. Following the abrogation of Article 370, Rashid was arrested by the National Investigation Agency for alleged terror funding. However, his incarceration did not prevent him from contesting — and winning — like another jailed figure, the alleged Khalistani separatist from Punjab, Amritpal Singh.
Rashid, founder of the Jammu and Kashmir Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), has since been released on bail. His party is likely to play a crucial role in the assembly elections. Rashid’s brother, Khurshid Ahmad Sheikh, will contest from Langate. Khurshid resigned as a schoolteacher to enter politics full-time. He has claimed that “Engineer Rashid’s wave is ten times bigger than what it was. The AIP is emerging as an alternative for the people.”
Safety and security of the candidates
Some believe that the Rashid “wildcard” is the brainchild of BJP leader and Kashmir in-charge, Ram Madhav. Madhav was moved back to the parent organisation, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), five years ago, supposedly for “mishandling” J&K. Why? It is believed that he brokered the short-lived, and some say disastrous, alliance between BJP and PDP.
Now, back in the political saddle, Madhav has declared that the J&K assembly polls will not only be historic, but the BJP will also make history by sweeping to power. This is a bold claim, but Madhav is one of the sharpest strategists within the BJP-RSS. I have known him personally for over a three decades, since before the BJP under Atal Bihari Vajpayee formed its first, though short-lived, government at the centre in 1997.
Madhav played a key role in the BJP’s remarkable expansion into the North East, where, in addition to Assam, it holds power with regional allies in several states.
Madhav’s optimism, therefore, cannot be dismissed. "Earlier it was said that the people of J&K would never accept BJP," he told party workers. "But we busted this myth in 2014. We were in the government." He added, “As we shattered that myth in 2014, I urge my party workers to stand with determination and prepare to break this myth again in the 2024 elections."
According to Madhav, Article 370 is now consigned to history, with no place in J&K’s future: "Six million people of J&K have forgotten Article 370, because they have seen prosperous lives in the past five years. Seventy percent of Kashmiris are saying there should have been no elections. They are asking why we must hold polls when the situation has improved so much. Development has taken place, tourism has boomed, people are happy with the current situation, business is thriving."
Only 8 October will reveal who is right. In the meantime, J&K remains on high alert for potential terrorist attacks and unrest. The immediate priority is ensuring the safety and security of the candidates and the free and fair conduct of the upcoming polls.