India: Will a caste census help the opposition alliance?
The INDIA bloc believes it will help them take on Modi and the BJP in the 2024 elections
First they dubbed the 26 party opposition alliance INDIA which got a hyper-confident BJP anxious. Now the INDIA alliance has united in the demand for a caste census, which has the potential to upend politics like the Mandal versus Kamandal politics of the 90’s.
The caste census, which would reveal the actual percentage of forward, backward and other backward castes in the population of India is a hornet’s nest the Modi government don’t want to touch. It is in direct conflict with the Rashtriya Swamsevak Sangh (RSS) idea of a united Hindu Samaj.
Sensing this, the original social justice warriors Nitish Kumar, Bihar chief minister, and Lalu Prasad Yadav, the Bihar CM during the heady days of Mandal 1.0, have been demanding a national census and have started one in Bihar. A comprehensive survey to gather socio-economic and educational data on castes was was initiated by the mahagatbandhan government.
Why Mamata Banerjee is against caste census
The key allies of the opposition alliance M K Stalin, chief minister of Tamil Nadu, and Rahul Gandhi, former Congress president, are also on board. The only opposition leader uncomfortable with the demand is Mamata Banerjee, chief minister of West Bengal, who feels that this will help the opposition alliance in the Hindi heartland, but harm her party, allowing the BJP to capitalise on the issue.
Bengal politics doesn’t revolve around caste but Banerjee fears that a large number of OBC voters will be attracted to the BJP, which has succeeded in weaning away a section of Scheduled Caste and Scheduled Tribe voters from the Trinamool Congress. However, senior opposition leaders told me that they hope to talk to Banerjee around given the enormity of the Modi challenge. “A third term for Modi would be the death knell of opposition leaders. We have to unite to take on this existential threat and that’s what we have repeatedly told Banerjee,” a senior Congress leader said.
A caste census will reveal the exact percentage so that welfare and reservation benefits can be tailored according to the exact caste numbers. In a democracy, it will allow the beneficiaries of the welfare system get a larger share of the pie. Gandhi made a controversial reference recently to top officials that the number of secretary-level Indian Administrative Services (IAS) officers in the centre are not proportionate to the number of OBC officials.
BJP has benefited massively from the voter support in Uttar Pradesh, where the 80 seats are the key to ruling India. A caste census in the state might jeopardise BJP’s prospects.
Competing castes demanding their numerical share in the welfare pie is the worst nightmare of the RSS, which splits the Hindus and ensures that they don’t make up a solid monolith vote bank for the BJP.
BJP has benefited massively from the voter support in Uttar Pradesh, where the 80 seats are the key to ruling India. A caste census in the state might jeopardise BJP’s prospects.
Social engineering is a euphemism for caste-based politics practised by the two regional heavyweights: the Samajwadi party which rose to power on the strength of OBC backing, especially Yadavs, and Mayawati’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) with Dalit voters especially the Jatav voter. Following Mayawati’s near-retirement from politics, Dalit voters have moved towards the BJP. Dalit politics is in a flux with no party seen as a successor to the BSP.
Akhilesh Yadav, SP chief, has an opportunity to make a dent in OBC politics; a defeat at BJP’s hands will virtually end his career. Yadav in desperation has tried several alliances and combinations with Mayawati and an alliance with a near comatose Congress in UP.
The Congress hopes to regain its old vote bank of Brahmins plus Dalits, moving away from Mayawati. The two caste groups have made a beeline for the BJP with both strongly backing Yogi Adityanath, UP chief minister.
The opposition is clear it wants a caste census to take on Modi and a hegemonic BJP. If it happens the opposition will have some hope in the 2024 elections. Watch this space.