Can Syria rise again from the ruins of conflict?

Discussing the situation in Syria is like walking on a bed of thorns — it’s a challenging task to untangle the complexities of the scene and attempt to reassemble it. This is especially true in the face of the unexpected “tsunami” that unfolded.

Thirteen years into the conflict, with numerous political meetings held in various capitals, a significant number of international resolutions passed, and meetings between neighbouring countries focused on developments in Syria, the “Syrian question” is once again surfacing with renewed intensity.

This comes more than a decade after the crisis first ignited, as millions of Syrian refugees remain in tents or makeshift settlements, while tens of thousands languish in underground prisons.

Some raise a naive question: why did the Al Assad regime fall? The answer, for those who reflect on history, is clear. The signs leading to the Al Assad regime’s collapse are unmistakable: repression. When repression prevails, prisons expand, the number of detainees rises, voices are silenced, and freedom dies.

Similarly, the same scenario happened to the regimes of the Shah of Iran, Gaddafi, Ben Ali, Bashir, and Saddam Hussein. In oppressive regimes, a culture of fear takes root, and hypocrisy flourishes. Therefore, it is no surprise that Bashar’s regime fell as it did. Repression may work for a time, but it contains within it the seeds of its own destruction, and over time, hatred builds until the people erupt in defiance.

Despite many attempts to demonise the Syrian opposition, it claims that, after years of fragmentation, it has become almost united. The opposition acknowledges that this earlier division hindered others from understanding its true intentions. It also asserts that it is not against any specific group or entity.

Some of its actions, particularly on the battlefield, can even be seen by those engaged in watching the fast-paced combat, as reasonable, as there has been no widespread “vendetta” against those who opposed the revolution.

The factors behind driving this military movement are numerous, including regional changes and the complete neglect of the basic needs of the population by the official authorities. Additionally, the expansion of repressive and foreign authoritarianism has led to ideological alienation among large segments of the Syrian people.

Outright indifference

However, the most crucial factor is the regime’s slow response — or outright indifference — towards addressing and changing outdated policies that have proven to be failures.

Statements from world capitals, even before the fall of Damascus, indicate growing distress over the continued impasse, as well as the presence of millions of displaced Syrians — whether in Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon, or other countries, or even within Syria, far from their places of origin.

More than a decade of conflict has left the country fragmented, with neighbouring and distant countries deeply affected. The economy has deteriorated, corruption has prevailed, and the prison systems have grown more extensive. Syria is no longer a unified state but rather a collection of fragmented entities.

The European Union has attributed the situation to Bashar’s intransigence, while the United States clearly held him responsible in a statement, with both condemning the bombing of civilians with aircraft. Britain, in its Prime Minister’s statement, also placed the blame squarely on Bashar al-Assad.

Meanwhile, Syrians remain divided across approximately 1,400 camps, facing internal and external displacement, drowning at sea, or enduring suffering in dark prisons. Syria itself lies barren and deprived, stripped of hope and unity.

A new road map

The factions have come to realise that their fragmentation will result in prolonged suffering for their people, with displacement continuing and prisons expanding into larger areas.

The situation today is different and perhaps more dire, posing the question: how can Syria emerge from the predicament created by the regime? The coming days may require even greater courage than that shown by the armed factions in their journey of sweeping into the capital.

How can the political balance be restored? This is an essential question, especially after the political situation has been severely weakened over these years of turmoil. There is a constant fear that the temptation to revert to repression, internal conflicts, or political bidding could once again destabilise the situation, as has often been the case in Arab politics.

The new authority must create a convincing road map that calms the Syrian public and the surrounding region, while including the various factions that have not been tainted by the bloodshed of Syrians. It may require thinking “out of the box” to find solutions. The coming days will be challenging, and it is the wise who will guide others.

Mohammad Alrumaihi is an author and Professor of Political Sociology at Kuwait University