On November 8, when Americans vote, a key electoral group will be evangelical Protestant Christians. To win the presidency, Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump needs to ensure that most of them turn out to vote for him. To many observers, this might seem strange. How can evangelicals, who strongly emphasise personal piety, traditional sexual morality, and stable marriages, support a thrice-married casino developer who has made appearances in Playboy videos and shown little public interest in religion prior to this election?
Despite this and a new letter published last Thursday by evangelical leaders who oppose Trump, most evangelical voters plan to vote for him. Even after a tape was released the following day of Trump using lewd language to describe aggressive sexual pursuit of women, including a married woman, on Saturday, a number of high-profile evangelical Trump supporters still stood by him, though some speculated that the latest scandal might reduce evangelical turn-out for Trump. Christianity in America is very diverse, including Catholics, Protestants and other groups, with a wide range of views. A 2015 Pew Research Centre report found that evangelical Protestants are the largest single religious group in the United States — more than 25 per cent of the population. Like other Christian groups, evangelicals are diverse, but they tend to emphasise that the Bible is God’s word, belief in Jesus’ death and resurrection are the only ways to eternal salvation, and regular prayer and worship are important
Evangelicals play an influential role in American politics. They are more likely to vote than people unaffiliated with a religion, according to a recently released report by the Public Religion Research Institute. Furthermore, a majority of evangelicals vote Republican; the 2015 Pew report found that 56 per cent identify with or lean toward the Republican party.
Evangelicals have played an important role in ensuring that social issues — in particular, opposition to abortion and gay marriage —are high on the Republican agenda.The Pew survey found that 63 per cent think abortion should be illegal in all or most cases and 55 per cent think homosexuality “should be discouraged.” They also are deeply concerned about what they view as discrimination against personal religious liberty.
In international policy, evangelicals tend to strongly support Israel and have played an important role in making it a political priority. Evangelicals have a range of views about Islam, with some opposing what they see as the “Islamisation” of western society while others emphasise protection of the rights of people of all faiths, including Muslims. In the Republican primaries, many evangelicals preferred candidates such as Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, and Marco Rubio, who emphasised their personal faith and conservative social positions. Trump’s position as the Republican presidential nominee has sparked debates within evangelical circles. Some well-known evangelical leaders are highly critical of Trump, but many high-profile evangelical leaders involved in politics are supporting him.
Evangelical concerns about Trump
Principled behaviour
Evangelicals have long emphasised that political candidates should demonstrate principled behaviour in their private and public lives. They also prefer candidates who demonstrate a personal faith commitment. In the past, some evangelical leaders have condemned specific politicians for their personal moral failings, including Bill Clinton’s infidelity during his presidency. Therefore, one might expect that they would reject Trump, who has made sexual swagger a part of his brand for years. Trump also has violated the usual rules of trying to woo evangelical voters, displaying a lack of knowledge about the Bible and saying that he has never asked God for forgiveness. However, while some evangelicals have expressed deep concern about these characteristics, many evangelical leaders have dismissed them, saying there is never a perfect candidate.
Some evangelicals have also questioned Trump’s commitment to their most dearly held social issues. For years, Trump favoured legalised abortion; only in the last few years did he change his position. He has tried to reach out to homosexual and transgender voters. While Trump has said that he opposes abortion with some exceptions and opposes gay marriage, these have not been major issues in his campaign.
Some evangelicals have criticised Trump’s anti-Muslim rhetoric, arguing that it undermines respect for religious minorities. Some evangelical leaders have also criticised Trump’s campaign for using “fear to demonise and degrade immigrants, foreigners, and people from different racial, ethnic, and religious backgrounds,” as written in the letter signed by a number of evangelical leaders.
Despite these concerns, multiple polls indicate that a majority of evangelicals plan to vote for Trump, with recent polls showing around 70-80 per cent of white evangelicals supporting him. Opposition to Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton is a major reason why many evangelical voters are setting aside hesitations about Trump. A Pew report from July found that “white evangelicals who say they would choose Trump mainly as a vote against Clinton outnumber those who say their choice is mainly one for Trump by a 45 per cent to 30 per cent margin.”
Pence a comforting choice
Many fear that Clinton would push for more expansive rights for homosexual and transgender people and access to abortion. Many evangelicals also share the broader Republican antipathy toward Clinton. Evangelicals also are more likely than the average American to prefer men as political leaders, according to a study published in Social Science Quarterly in July. While many evangelicals question Trump’s commitment to opposing abortion and gay marriage, they take comfort in his choice of Indiana Governor Mike Pence as his vice-presidential candidate, who is known for his professed Christian faith and conservative social positions. The Trump campaign also has an evangelical advisory board.
Many evangelicals are deeply worried about the make-up of the Supreme Court, and the next president will likely play a key role in nominating at least one Supreme Court justice. The Supreme Court will play a major role in deciding issues that are very important to conservative evangelicals. They hope that, if elected, Trump would appoint a conservative justice; indeed, in September, his campaign produced an updated list of potential Supreme Court nominees, which pleased many conservatives. Some evangelicals are attracted by Trump’s promises to restore what many see as diminished Christian influence in society. In September, he said that, if he becomes president, “our Christian heritage will be cherished, protected, defended, like you’ve never seen before.” Trump has promised to repeal the Johnson Amendment, which limits the ability of tax-exempt organisations, including churches, to endorse political candidates.
Future of religion and politics
On election day, most evangelicals will vote for Trump. They hope that he will help protect the issues important to them and stop what many conservative Christians see as a dangerous slide into social secularism and liberalism.
Evangelical support for Trump raises questions about the long-term future of religion and politics in America. The percentage of Americans who identify as Christian is in decline, as more Americans — especially among youth — consider themselves unaffiliated with a faith group. There are many reasons for this trend, but several studies suggest that significant factors include perceptions that Christianity is too closely associated with conservative politics and that Christian leaders are hypocritical.When evangelical Christians support a Republican candidate with Trump’s background, it reinforces perceptions among many Americans that Christians are hypocritical and more interested in political power than in faith principles.
A diverse array of Christian leaders recognise these problems. Some express concern that support for Trump will undermine evangelicals’ future influence in politics: how can evangelicals persuade politicians that they should practice principles consistent with their beliefs if it is clear that any Republican nominee will win most evangelical votes regardless? There are also moderate and liberal Christians who point out that they do not share conservative Christians’ political views. Some Christian leaders have called for a return to emphasising religious principles rather than focusing on politics. Whoever wins in November, the debate among American Christians about the proper role of religion in politics is heating up.
Kerry Boyd Anderson is a writer and political risk consultant.
