The American bombing of a Syrian air force base has prompted a reappraisal of Arab views on the Trump White House, but there is a danger that building long-term policy expectations from this moment might result in disappointment thanks to the emotional and highly changeable style of US President Donald Trump. The president’s lack of underlying policy means that anyone seeking advantage from Trump’s government needs to find immediate benefits, rather than waiting for some long-term delivery that may not happen.
The Arab world was at first horrified by the surprise arrival of the deeply isolationist Donald Trump as American president, and was then further traumatised as he publicly wondered about dumping the two-state solution in Palestine. The turmoil of Trump appointing his senior officials, and the revolving door as people came and went also added to the confusion. The sense of worry was much compounded by Trump’s two attempts to ban entry to the US to citizens of seven at first, and then six, Muslim-majority nations; and then most recently by the bizarre laptop ban on airlines coming from specific Middle Eastern destinations.
But there was also a sense that reaching out to the new president had to make sense.
Firstly, regardless of any pre-election doubts about his fitness for office, the fact was that after the result he was sitting in the White House and had to be dealt with.
But there was some policy issues that showed some interesting advantage for Arab positions: for example, Trump was much tougher on Iran than President Barack Obama had been, and he showed more willingness to support the Saudi-led coalition in Yemen fighting the Al Houthi opposition.
His Highness Shaikh Mohammad Bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi and Deputy Supreme Commander of the UAE Armed Forces, spoke with Trump by phone in January when the two leaders discussed how to enhance their bilateral ties, and emphasised their joint commitment to the stability and security of the region and efforts to counter extremism, violence and terrorist groups.
The new administration may have been particularly chaotic and more turbulent than any other in living memory, but it also appears to want to befriend the Gulf region, according to former US Ambassador Frank Wisner, the chairman of the Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington, speaking in Dubai this week.
Opportunity to reach out
He made an interesting comment when he said that the lack of experience in the administration gives an important opportunity to the Arabs to reach out and establish contacts with the new reality, supplying it with position papers, information and data to support the new staffers in working out the administration’s policies on the issues affecting the Arab world.
This has already been happening and a steady stream of Arab leaders has been calling at the White House to make their mark with the new president.
One of the first Arabs to visit Washington was Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad Bin Salman who followed by Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Al Abadi. The recent Dead Sea Arab summit worked hard to reinforce the united Arab position on Palestine so that Egypt’s President Abdul Fattah Al Sissi and Jordan’s King Abdullah said the same things in support of the two-state solution when they also made the trek to the White House, and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas is due to follow very soon.
Even the most radical administrations have a tendency to drift to the centre over time, which appears to be happening. There was (and still is) a fear that Trump’s particular brand of isolationism and his slogan ‘America First’ might put him at odds with half the world. He was deeply disparaging about the European Union, and seemed to be encouraging the bigoted Marine Le Pen in France and Nigel Farrage in Britain, yet his meetings with European leaders have gone off peacefully.
Early in his administration he spoke to the Taiwanese and disputed China’s prized One-China policy, in addition to having particularly harsh words while campaigning on currency manipulation, but the Xi-Trump summit passed off with no public rancour.
The Arabs hope for a similar drift and have been much encouraged by Trump’s strong reaction to Bashar Al Assad’s forces using chemical weapons on his own people and killing more than 70 people. The American reaction certainly re-invigorated the opposition who had started to see the drift to back Al Assad as a future leader in Syria as something that they could not resist, as his Russian and Iranian allies gave him the territorial superiority that the lack of any international support for the opposition had denied them.
But there is an obvious danger for Arab states seeking to build policy based on the ideas of an American president who is so changeable. For years Trump has refused to countenance any military intervention in Syria, but the sight of one video flipped his ideas completely.
So who knows what will happen next, and which way Trump may jump next. The lesson for the Arab states is that they should follow the advice that old desert travellers gave their younger followers when trying to get sustenance from the very spiky cactuses: “Go very carefully indeed”.
