Japan and South Korea are experiencing some of the most pronounced demographic shifts globally. Japan, having become the world’s first “super-aged” society, has over 20% of its population aged 65 or older, with projections indicating that this figure will continue to rise. Similarly, South Korea is on track to achieve super-aged status by 2025, with estimates suggesting that nearly 44% of its population will be aged 65 and above by 2050.
Japan has one of the lowest birth rates in the world, with projections indicating a continued decline in the working-age population. Similarly, South Korea’s fertility rate has plummeted to alarmingly low levels, with a birth rate of just 0.7 births per woman in 2023.
Both countries have seen a trend towards later or no marriage and gender disparities in wages which have contributed to the declining birth rates. In Japan and South Korea, gender imbalances and early retirement significantly impact demographic trends and have far-reaching implications.
These trends have resulted in a shrinking pool of eligible young military recruits, making it increasingly difficult for both nations to fill military ranks. In Japan, the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) have consistently failed to meet recruitment targets, achieving only 51% of their goal in fiscal 2023. This marks the lowest recruitment rate since the establishment of the SDF in 1954. In South Korea, the Army’s non-commissioned officer recruitment rate falling to just 77.1% in 2022.
Maintaining defence capabilities
The implications of these demographic changes are profound. A declining working-age population means fewer individuals available for military service, which directly impacts the size and readiness of armed forces. As the number of young men eligible for military recruitment decreases, both Japan and South Korea must adapt their military strategies and personnel policies to maintain defence capabilities.
In response, both countries have been exploring various strategies to widen recruitment pools. This includes attracting more women into military roles, accepting older recruits, and leveraging technology to reduce reliance on human labour in defence operations. For instance, Japan has already begun integrating advanced technologies, such as robotics and artificial intelligence, into its defence strategy to compensate for the shrinking workforce.
This includes the integration of advanced robotics and artificial intelligence (AI) into military operations. Japan has invested in autonomous systems that can perform surveillance, logistics, and even combat roles, thereby reducing the reliance on human personnel.
Enhanced military effectiveness
By automating certain tasks, military forces can maintain operational capabilities even with a smaller workforce. In South Korea, the development of AI and internet of Things (IoT) technologies is being explored to enhance military effectiveness. AI can be employed for predictive analytics, improving decision-making processes and operational efficiency.
Advancements in health technology can enable older individuals to serve in non-combat roles, leveraging their experience and knowledge while maintaining overall military readiness. By utilising technology to create age-friendly work environments, both Japan and South Korea can retain skilled personnel longer, thereby mitigating the effects of an ageing workforce.
The allure of military careers in both countries has diminished due to various economic and cultural factors. In South Korea, modest salaries, poor working conditions, and an outdated military culture have contributed to a decline in interest among potential recruits. Although the government has proposed salary increases for conscripts, this has inadvertently created disparities that dissuade career soldiers from remaining in service.
In Japan, the competition for young talent has intensified as the private sector offers more attractive job opportunities. The job availability ratio for high school graduates has remained high, making it challenging for the SDF to compete for recruits. Despite efforts to improve living conditions and promote military careers through pop culture campaigns, the SDF continues to face an uphill battle in attracting young people to enlist.
As the population ages, there will be increased demands on government budgets to support pensions and elder care, potentially diverting funds away from defence spending. This could lead to a reduction in military capabilities and readiness, as resources are reallocated to address the needs of an ageing population.
As both countries grapple with ageing populations and declining birth rates, the implications for national security and defence readiness are significant. Without effective strategies to address these challenges, both nations risk compromising their military capabilities and overall security posture.
Dr Kristian Alexander is a Senior Fellow and Lead Researcher at the Rabdan Security & Defense Institute (RSDI), Abu Dhabi, UAE
