What’s in store for Lebanon post-Hariri?

Damascus: In a televised address on Monday, Lebanon’s former Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced that he is retiring from politics and, consequently, not running for the upcoming parliamentary elections, scheduled for March.

In a solemn statement that Hariri, 52, ended tearfully, the three-time premier said: “I am convinced that there is no room for positive opportunities due to Iranian influence, our indecisiveness with the international community, internal divisions, and sectarian divisions.”

There are different interpretations and reasons behind Hariri’s sudden retirement, after a political career dating back to the 2005, inherited from his slain father, former premier Rafik Hariri.

The Nasser example in Egypt

Some believe that Hariri is not serious about retirement, trying to pull off a stunt similar to that of Egyptian President Gamal Abdul Nasser after the 1967 war with Israel.

Nasser had famously resigned from office, taking blame for the Arab defeat, which triggered massive demonstrations across the Arab World, with followers begging him to reconsider. That stunt helped people forgive his responsibility for the defeat, positioning him as a selfless and responsible leader.

“I think Saad Hariri is playing a political game,” said Hilal Khashan, veteran professor at the American University of Beirut (AUB). Speaking to Gulf News, he explained: “He is isolated in Lebanon and treated as irrelevant by the Saudis. His goal is to shock the Lebanese Sunni community by staging demonstrations and road closures to demonstrate locally and regionally that he is the undisputed leader of the Sunnis.”

Khashan added: “Nasser’s trick worked, and it seems Hariri believes his stunt will also work.”

Rise of Bahaa Hariri

One reason that might explain Hariri’s sudden withdrawal is lack of liquidity to fund a nationwide political campaign, after wasting his family wealth on bankrolling his political career.

Secondly, Hariri is not too comfortable with the developing political appetite of his elder brother Bahaa (56), who is entering Lebanese politics in the upcoming parliamentary elections, albeit through proxies and not directly, under a campaign called “Sawa Li Lubnan.”

Unlike Saad, Bahaa has not wasted his inheritance from the business empire of their father, and according to Forbes, his net worth stands currently at $2 billion. That means plenty of funds to market himself as the new leader of Lebanese Sunnis, just like his father did when he debuted in the early 1990s.

Unlike Saad, the Boston University-educated Bahaa has taken a particularly tough position on Hezbollah, which is music to the ears of the West and Saudi Arabia. His ambition has been rising steadily since he debuted politically two years ago, supporting citywide protests that toppled his brother’s third cabinet, back in October 2019.

Although Bahaa did not comment directly on his brother’s decision, sources close to him were quoted in the Lebanese online newspaper Al Modon, as saying: “Rafik Hariri’s house will not close.” They described Saad Hariri’s decision as “important,” without going any further.

Who will replace Hariri?

Hariri’s departure leaves a nest of unanswered questions. What will be the fate of the ministers currently in the cabinet of Prime Minister Najib Mikati, whom he named last September?

Hariri’s share of the government were the ministers of environment Nasser Yassin and health, Firas Abyad, in addition to co-appointing Interior Minister Bassam Mawlawi with the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) of President Michel Aoun.

Will they continue to serve as members of a party that is un-represented in the Chamber of Deputies, or be treated as independent technocrats?

Secondly, what will be the fate of the Sunni community of Lebanon, which has been controlled by the Hariri family since end of the country’s civil war?

Hariri made it clear that his Future Movement will boycott the upcoming elections, meaning that if any of its member wants to run for office, they would have to do so without party backing or funding.

Staying out

Heavyweight Sunnis from the Future Movement will be thus be staying out of the next chamber, like ex-Prime Minister Fouad Siniora and ex-Interior Minister Nouhad Machnouk.

Bahaa’s political grouping, although able and willing, needs time to nourish and challenge, let alone replace, the powerbase of the Future Movement, which has been at the helm of Sunni politics for three solid decades. While it does that, a colourful assortment of Sunni figures might emerge to fill in the vacuum.

Some of those families are old-time nobility, like that of ex-Prime Minister Tammam Salam, working in politics since Ottoman times, only to be sidelined by the dramatic rise of Rafik Hariri in 1992. Tammam Salam had served as premier once in 2014, while his father Sa’eb had been six-time premier between 1952-1973.

At arms-length

Tammam Salam has announced however, that he too won’t be running for parliament next March.

Incumbent Prime Minister Najib Mikati is another Sunni heavyweight, who leads a political party called Azm, which won 4 seats in the Lebanese Parliament of 2018. He stands at arms-length from all regional and international stakeholders in Lebanese politics, and is acceptable to both Shiites and Christians.

When Rafik Hariri graced the scene in the early 1990s, he used his immense wealth to buy off loyalty throughout the Sunni community. Traditional families realised that for them to remain relevant in their cities and towns, they had to work either with him or through him. A handful of Sunni figures refused to that, like Salim Al Hoss, who replaced Hariri as prime minister in 1998, and Omar Karami, who took over in 2004.

Hoss is too old, however, now at 92, while Karami died in 2015. His son, Faisal, is a former minister and member of the Hezbollah-led March 8 Alliance.

2 parties for Sunnis?

Four years ago, Hezbollah had tried marketing him as part of a new parliamentary bloc of anti-Hariri Sunnis, made up of 10 MPs. Hezbollah tried securing representation for them in Saad Hariri’s third and last cabinet, arguing that Shiites had two parties (being Hezbollah and Amal) and so did the Christians (FPM and the Lebanese Forces) and the Druze (that of Emir Talal Arslan and Walid Jumblatt). It was only logical, they argued, that the Sunnis should have two parties as well, but their claim was categorically refused by Hariri, who insisted “I am the father of Sunnis.”

The list of Hezbollah-backed Sunnis includes men like Faisal Karami, Beirut MP Ali Tarabulsi, ex-Prime Minister Hassan Diab, and Abdul Rahim Murad, an ex-defence minister from the Bekka Valley.

Another leader-in-waiting is Fouad Makhzoumi, a self-made tycoon who was elected as an independent MP for Beirut in 2018. He is one of the more powerful Sunni figures, expected to play a greater role in post-Hariri Lebanon.

Makhzoumi has taken a tough stance on Hezbollah, tweeting on 24 January: “We need to confiscate Hezbollah arms, because it has become a militia threatening the Lebanese with its 100,00 fighters.”

He then commented on Hariri’s decision, with whom he never got along, saying: “It is unacceptable to insult the Sunni community and to cancel its role and presence simply because Hariri decided to not run for the parliamentary elections.”

He wrapped up: “The Sunni community is fertile.”