Would sanctions make any difference?

Moscow

President Obama is threatening to impose a range of sanctions on Russia to compel President Vladimir Putin to reverse course in Ukraine, and on Tuesday Secretary of State John Kerry unveiled in Kiev a $1 billion (Dh3.67 billion) aid package to help the Ukrainian government stabilise and fight off the Russian bear.

Despite the tough language and pledge of punitive action from the Obama administration, it remains unclear just how persuasive US measures are likely to be with a Russia that is economically and geopolitically stronger than at any time since the collapse of the Soviet Union.

Two decades ago, the United States could pressure a retrenched and economically dependent Russia to take certain actions concerning the republics of the former Soviet empire, Russia scholars note. But today, the US ability to raise the “cost” for Russian actions is much more limited, says Fiona Hill, a former intelligence officer specialising in Russia who is now a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington.

That helps explain two points that Obama underscored in laying out his plan for dealing with Russia: First, US action must be coordinated with other Western partners, primarily European powers that have much more significant trade and economic ties with Russia than does the US.

And second, US sanctions will focus on measures targeting what Obama called Russia’s “status in the world,” an area that is of keen importance to the world-image-conscious Putin.

The US accounts for only about 1 per cent of Russian trade, so the US cannot expect to have significant economic influence. Post-Soviet Russia was beholden to Washington-influenced international financial institutions such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund, Ms. Hill notes, but those days are long over.

On the other hand, the European Union (EU) is a crucial trade partner for Russia and presumably could have much more influence with Moscow by imposing trade sanctions. But perhaps because of those close ties — and the fact that Western Europe depends on Russia for a chunk of its energy needs — Western European leaders have so far sounded a more cautious note than Obama about imposing sanctions.

The EU did issue a statement late on Monday warning Moscow that EU-Russia relations would be set back if it did not quickly take steps to reduce tensions and reverse its course in Ukraine. But consultations among the foreign ministers of the 28-nation organisation did not produce concrete measures, leaving most Europe analysts concluding that the EU remains wary of attempts to “isolate” Russia, as Obama suggested on Monday.

— Christian Science Monitor