Tehran’s Hormuz threats expose regime panic amid rial collapse, fuel smuggling and fears of uprising

Amid the economic war announced by the Trump administration on Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei's senior aide Mohsen Rezaie has renewed threats against all Gulf oil exporters even as a former official has admitted Tehran is bracing for "internal unrest" and a potential uprising "in the coming weeks" fuelled by corruption within the regime.

Newly-appointed Iranian national security adviser Mohsen Rezaie has threatened Iran’s Gulf neighbours: “If the economic war continues, not a single drop of oil will be exporte, neither through the Strait of Hormuz nor from anywhere in the Gulf.”

Furthermore, according to him, Iran will view the participation of other countries in these American sanctions as "an act of war".

Iran Gulf Strait Authority has also issued new rules for ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz: Vessels that violate Iranian protocols could face restrictions on subsequent voyages, including fines, detention or seizure.

Cargo owners are being told to check Iran’s “non-compliant vessels” list before chartering ships. 

The regime said vessels conducting ship-to-ship transfers or other transactions with a blacklisted vessel will itself be added to the list.

The threat only repeat previous threats against neighbours and shipping, but they are seen as a collective sign of panic within the regime amid worsening internal contradictions within its halls of power given the hyperinflation and internal reports of corruption.

A senior Iranian government official, meanwhile, has said members of both major political factions are involved in "fuel-smuggling networks", highlighting the scale of a trade that authorities say drains heavily subsidised fuel from the domestic market.

Esmail Saqab Esfahani, a presidential deputy responsible for fuel optimisation and strategic energy management, said efforts to curb the trade faced resistance from politically connected interests, as per The Iran Watcher.

Esfahani warned that those affected could retaliate, saying they could “smash the windows” of his office.

Iranian officials have previously estimated that between 20 million and 30 million litres of fuel are smuggled out of the country each day.

Esfahani's claim cannot be independently verified.

It suggests, though, that the trade is driven largely by the gap between Iran's heavily subsidised domestic fuel prices and higher prices in neighbouring countries.

The scale of the alleged smuggling has raised concerns about losses to the government and pressure on Iran's fuel supplies. Moving such volumes requires extensive access to fuel distribution, transport and cross-border networks.

The remarks also underscore broader concerns about corruption and politically connected economic interests in Iran, where authorities have repeatedly blamed both smuggling and international sanctions for strains on the economy and public finances.

Iranian officials have periodically announced crackdowns on fuel smuggling, but the trade has continued to pose a major economic challenge.

The value of Iran’s rial on Sunday nosedived to $1:2 million rials, while the situation in Hormuz is also reportedly going against Iran’s wishes.

Recent reporting and shipping data indicate Iran’s ability to dictate terms in the strait has “weakened" significantly, though it retains disruptive capacity and the waterway remains contested rather than fully under US control, CNN reported.

US efforts to move oil through the strait — claiming ~10 million+ barrels some days, occasionally higher, approaching pre-war flows — with American protection, citing even anti-Trump news media acknowledging Iran is “losing its grip.” 

Western media, meanwhile, are reporting that the Islamic Republic’s grip on the Strait of Hormuz is “breaking” — citing the 400% jump in shipping traffic "in just two weeks".

even as Tehran issued new rules for ships transiting the Hormuz strait, 

Former Economy Minister Ehsan Khandoozi warned that “all the signs” point to “unrest and then war” during Shahrivar and Mehr, covering roughly late August through late October. Khandoozi, who served under Ebrahim Raisi, is warning against raising key prices as regime insiders warn of what could trigger another flareup of protests. This time, instead of the opposition issuing the warning, Khandoozi, a former regime economy minister is publicly warning that the conditions inside Iran point toward unrest followed by war. In another indication that the Islamic Republic is preparing for the possibility that the next major threat to its survival erupts from within.On Sunday, The Iran Watcher cited a "leaked IRGC-Basij” meeting reveals a regime terrified that another nationwide uprising is coming. In the closed Pakdasht meeting, officials warned that the conditions driving previous protests have not disappeared and that rising fuel could trigger unrest.

According to data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations Centre (UKMTO), nearly 200 ships crossed the strait last week, up from 150 the previous week and just 40 two weeks earlier.

Vessels are increasingly moving through a US-backed southern corridor, pushing traffic back to roughly 20% of pre-war levels. Industry watchers say cite that the trend matters more than the current volume. 

Every ship that crosses safely weakens the regime’s ability to weaponise Hormuz and hold global energy flows hostage.

The Tehran regime, which built its strategy around controlling the chokepoint, is seeing that leverage is now being steadily dismantled.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will impose new sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran, the so-called “Economic D-Day” announced by President Trump, which he claims will paralyse the Iranian economy.