Key Turkey referendum today

Istanbul: Turks are preparing to vote on a package of far-reaching constitutional changes today, in what has turned into a referendum on the country's Islamic-leaning ruling party.

Critics say the Justice and Development Party (AKP) wants to erase modern Turkey's secular traditions, further weaken once-hallowed state institutions like the military, and manipulate the judiciary to increase its own power.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his ministers have argued that their sole aim is to liberalise the 1982 constitution, imposed after a military coup, by democratising the state in line with European standards, while better protecting the rights of every citizen.

Erdogan called the vote the "most important" event in Turkey's recent political history. But despite eight years in power — during which Turkey became the world's 15th-largest economy — the AKP has not been able to bridge the social, political, and economic divisions enough to stave off public mistrust of its intentions.

Polls

Polls suggest the amendments will pass. A survey by KONDA institute said the reforms, including controversial changes to the judiciary, would pass with a "yes" vote of 56.8 per cent in today's plebiscite, seen as a key gauge of Erdogan's support before a parliamentary election next year.

However, KONDA said 17.6 per cent of the electorate were still undecided. Earlier polls last week showed the vote was too close to call, with one predicting a narrow defeat for the reform package and the other suggesting it would pass by the slimmest of margins.

Erdogan says the reforms will bring the constitution, drafted after a 1980 military coup, closer in line with those of the European Union, which Turkey seeks to join.

Among the 26 articles that make up the package are changes in the way senior judges are selected. Opposition parties argue that these will enable the government to exert more influence over the judiciary.

Defeat in the referendum would damage the ruling party's morale ahead of the parliamentary election, due by July 2011.

Turkish markets are unlikely to move significantly if the constitutional changes pass, but could turn bearish if the government loses the plebiscite.

The KONDA poll was conducted on September 4-5 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2 per cent. Yesterday, Turkish politicians were making their final campaign declarations ahead of the referendum.

About 50 million Turks, or two-thirds of the population, are eligible to vote in the referendum.

Turkish police detained 60 people suspected of trying to intimidate voters into boycotting the referendum on constitutional change, NTV news reported.

Special protections

Police acted in Istanbul and the southeastern cities of Van and Batman, the channel reported on its website, citing unnamed police officials. Members of the main Kurdish political party, which advocates a boycott, were among those detained, it said.

On many of the 26 amendments, there is little controversy. In line with European Union requirements — Turkey has for decades aimed to become a member of the European club — there are special protections for children, women, and other vulnerable citizens, and improvements in civil society such as greater ability for workers to strike.

But other points have drawn more criticism, such as changes that would grant more power to elected officials to shape key judicial bodies that have long been conservative bastions, such as the Constitutional Court and High Council for Judges and Public Prosecutors.

— with inputs from Reuters, Bloomberg