Israel wary of escalation ahead of polls

Dubai: Gaza's return to a scene of another episode of violence between Hamas and Israel yesterday has diminished the chances of a ceasefire between the two sides.

However, analysts are saying the escalation, which they relate to the campaigns of next February's Israeli elections, aims to improve both sides' conditions and positions in the next truce.

Yet, they do not exclude entirely the possibility of a major Israeli offensive on Gaza in the near future. "It was expected in the [current Israeli] elections atmosphere," former Palestinian minister Gassan Al Khatib said of the escalation.

"Elections in Israel constitute the main barometer for its moves," Al Khatib, who is also a lecturer at the West-Bank-based Birzeit University, added.

While Israeli leadership seems to seek a tough line against Hamas, it is concerned that it will not score a crushing victory against the group if a massive offensive against the strip were to be launched, Palestinians analysts said.

Speaking to Gulf News, Al Khatib said "Israel seeks escalation [at present], but it will not enter into an adventure that would turn out to be a failure and affect the results of the elections," he said.

Palestinian MP Mustafa Al Barghouti expressed a similar view and added the only thing that would stop Israel from invading the impoverished Gaza strip would be the fact that such an operation would have high costs, particularly many human casualties.

"They are not sure that such an offensive would not be [costly]," Al Barghouti, Secretary-General of the Palestinian National Initiative, said.

The initiative is considered an attempt to build a reformist, inclusive alternative to both the Palestine Liberation Organisation (PLO) and the Islamic groups such as Hamas.

Hamas fighters have fired volleys of mortar fire and rockets on Israel yesterday - the largest barrage since last June when the Egypt-brokered truce went into effect in and around the besieged Gaza.

The ceasefire, the longest truce between the two sides in nearly 8 years, expired last Friday. No injuries were reported from yesterday's attacks, which Hamas said was "to avenge the killing" of three of its members by the Israeli army late on Tuesday.

The Israeli army, on the other hand, said it had fired at three fighters planting explosives near the border fence. Hamas also said two members of its armed wing died in a "jihadi mission" overnight, with Israeli media saying they died when a bomb they were making near the southern city of Khan Yunis exploded.

Israeli Deputy Defence Minister Matan Vilani warned on army radio that the renewed barrages of rocket fire were "intolerable and we will take all necessary measures to stop them."

Palestinians also expect escalation to continue in the coming days, as they believe both Hamas and Israel are flexing their muscles. While Al Khatib said he has "no doubt both sides will reach a ceasefire" in the future "both want to improve their conditions in the next truce."

Now, Hamas wants to reach a truce based on "ceasefire for a ceasefire away from the border posts, particularly those designed for cargos and supplies," Khatib said. Israel had agreed to open cargo border posts with Gaza yesterday to allow in a limited amount of supplies.

But the military spokesman said they would remain closed in light of the rocket fire.

Gaza has been under Israeli blockade since Hamas seized power violently in June 2007. At the same time, "Israel seeks to include the fate of [the captured Israeli soldier Gilad] Shalit in the ceasefire negotiations," Al Khatib noted in reference to the soldier who was taken as a hostage by Hamas in 2006.

Hamas officials have expressed their willingness to renew the truce. Mahmoud Zahar, a Hamas leader, said they might consider renewing the truce "if Israel respects the conditions of a ceasefire," including lifting the blockade of Gaza and stopping military raids.

PROTEST
Midnight mass cancelled

The head of the Gaza Strip's' tiny Roman Catholic community has cancelled Christmas Eve's Midnight Mass celebration to protest Israel's blockade.

Father Manuel Musallem said the parish would instead hold an evening mass.

About 4,000 Christians live in Gaza, a conservative Muslim society of roughly 1.4 million people.

There are about 300 Roman Catholics in Gaza and most of the remaining Christians are Greek Orthodox.

Amid the violence, both sides have expressed willingness to consider reviving the six-month truce, which lapsed last Friday.

Egypt, which mediated the original cease-fire, is leading the diplomatic efforts to renew it, and today, Israeli Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni is to meet with Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak in Cairo.

- AP
- With inputs from agencies