Iran ships 4 million barrels of oil despite US blockade, trackers say

Dubai: Iran is still moving oil — even under a US naval blockade — undercutting Washington’s effort to choke off its energy lifeline and easing fears of an immediate global supply shock.

Tanker trackers and media reports say Tehran has loaded at least 4.6 million barrels of crude — amounting to nearly $400 million worth of crude — at its export terminals in recent days, with another four million barrels appearing to have crossed the blockade line.

Satellite imagery cited by monitoring firms shows some vessels “going dark” — switching off transponders to slip past surveillance and deliver cargo beyond restricted zones.

With Iran along the northern coast of the narrow Strait of Hormuz, its geographic edge makes such evasion easier.

The data points to a more resilient export network than markets had anticipated, even as the United States ramps up maritime pressure in and around the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most critical oil chokepoint.

For markets, the message is simple: the feared supply shock is not here — yet.

At a glance – blockade vs reality

• 4.6m barrels loaded at export terminals

• 4m barrels appear to have crossed blockade line

• Tankers “going dark” to evade tracking

• Strait of Hormuz still key global chokepoint

• Market odds of oil ATH by April 30: 1.1% (down from 2%)

• Indicates supply not fully disrupted

Prediction markets tracking the chances of crude hitting an all-time high by April 30 have sharply cooled, with odds dropping to about 1.1%, down from roughly 2% just 24 hours earlier. Traders say the shift reflects growing confidence that flows, while disrupted, are not collapsing.

The reaction has been amplified by thin trading conditions, where relatively small bets can move prices sharply. But the direction is clear — sentiment has softened as evidence mounts that Iranian barrels are still finding their way to market.

Hormuz for blockade: Iran’s offer

• Iran signals willingness to ease restrictions on Strait of Hormuz

• Wants US to lift naval blockade in return

• Proposal reportedly passed via Pakistan mediation

• Does not address nuclear programme — key sticking point

• US unlikely to accept without broader concessions

Rising geopolitical risk

That resilience, however, sits alongside rising geopolitical risk.

Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr Al Busaidi called for sustained diplomacy to safeguard freedom of navigation, stressing that regional states share responsibility for keeping key shipping lanes open and securing the release of detained seafarers.

Russia’s envoy to international organisations in Vienna, Mikhail Ulyanov, also criticised Washington’s approach, saying threats of force and tighter sanctions amount to “blackmail, ultimatums and deadlines.”

In a post on X, Ulyanov said the US often negotiates “from a position of strength,” but argued that “this scheme doesn’t work with Iran,” urging Washington to drop coercive elements from its stance.

Tehran has paired its export manoeuvres with a stark warning. A senior Iranian official said any damage to its oil infrastructure would trigger a disproportionate response against countries backing such actions. “Our math is different; One oil well equals four oil wells,” he said — a signal that escalation could quickly spill beyond the current standoff.

Iran’s parliamentary speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf also suggested the country retains leverage, pointing to what he described as its “energy and shipping cards,” including the Strait of Hormuz, Bab Al Mandeb and pipeline networks.

At the same time, the economic strain inside Iran is becoming harder to ignore. Officials say prolonged internet shutdowns — now stretching close to two months — are costing the economy roughly $31 million a day, with layoffs looming across the digital sector. Monitoring group NetBlocks has described the disruption as unprecedented in both scale and duration.

US President Donald Trump has kept up the pressure, warning that Iran could soon face critical bottlenecks if it fails to move oil into storage or onto tankers under continued restrictions.

But the latest shipping data complicates that narrative.

As long as Iran can continue exporting even partial volumes, analysts say, the case for a near-term price spike weakens significantly. For crude to surge toward record levels within days, markets would need a sharp escalation — such as direct attacks on infrastructure, a full closure of Hormuz, or a collapse in diplomatic efforts.

For now, the signal from the water is clear: The blockade is biting — but it is far from airtight. And the market is trading that gap.