Focus must be on peace incentives

Juba: Both Sudan and Sudan need to see the benefit of mutual cooperation. While the stakes may be higher for the newly-independent South Sudan, Sudan should also have a viable interest in a stable relationship.

Sudan’s economy has suffered since losing 75 per cent of oil reserves to South Sudan. But as per the September 2012 agreements, the government is entitled to collect $24 of transit fees per barrel, composed of $8-9 transit fee and 15 per cent prorated financial assistance from South Sudan.

The latter was aimed at bridging Sudan’s budget deficit following the secession of South Sudan. Despite recent threats by President Bashir to shut down the oil pipeline, it’s in Sudan’s best interest to keep the oil and the transit fees flowing.

At the same time, internal issues in both countries, but especially Sudan, may make it more difficult to reach compromises on the bilateral front. Sudan is fighting rebels in Darfur, South Kordofan and Blue Nile, and President Bashir is struggling to hold on to power amid divisions within the ruling party. Ensuring internal stability may thus be higher on the political agenda of Khartoum than to reach lasting peace with South Sudan.

As for South Sudan, it has its plate full trying to build a state, to deliver basic services to an increasingly impatient population and to improve the security especially in Jonglei state. There are also alleged talks of rising disagreements and competition within the SPLM in the light of the upcoming elections in two years time.

Despite the conflicts over the last two years, the relationship appears to be going in the right direction in the weeks leading up to South Sudan’s independence day celebrations. Last week, South Sudan sold its first oil to the international markets since early 2012.

Vice President Riek Machar visited Khartoum to discuss outstanding issues of cooperation and to diffuse threats by Khartoum over a renewed closure of the pipeline. The border demarcation process also seems to be finally gaining traction. In the past week, Chief AU Negotiator Thabo Mbeki has been visiting Khartoum and Juba to discuss concrete next steps to kick-start the establishment of the safe demilitarised border zone.

But as both countries continue to pledge their respective commitment to improve relations, many more actions are needed to transform a relationship of conflict and distrust into one of peaceful cooperation.

Simona Foltyn is a freelance writer who has lived and worked in both Sudan and South Sudan. She also worked for the UN.