Battle for pro-government stronghold in Lebanon

Beirut: Riding a wave of anger and anti-Syria sentiments following the assassination of its leader, former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri two months earlier, Lebanon's Future Movement was the biggest election winner four years ago.

However, today, its absolute power over its Sunni supporters seems to show some cracks and they are most visible in the northern city of Tripoli, which in the 2005 elections voluntarily gave its reign to the Future leader, Sa'ad Hariri, son of the assassinated former prime minister. The 'Al Mostaqbal' or Future won the city's eight seats.

But in this weekend's elections, the anti-Syrian Hariri movement, which is backed by the US and Saudi Arabia, has already conceded two seats to former rivals and risks loosing one more to its traditional foe, the pro-Syrian former Prime Minister Omar Karame.

"Not true," says Mustafa Allouch, a Future MP, who has withdrawn his candidacy on the Hariri list to accommodate two former rivals, former Prime minister Najeeb Miqati and Ahmad Karame, a close ally of Miqati.

"All of our candidates will win, not only in Tripoli but across Lebanon," he told Gulf News. He pointed at the latest polls which he says indicated a sure victory for the Hariri list in all Sunni districts.

Traditionally, Tripoli, a stronghold of Lebanon's Sunni community, is very close to Syria because of its geographical location and family relations that cut across the border.

It is also home to prominent pro-Syrian politicians such as former prime ministers Karame and Miqati. According to Lebanon's sectarian division of power, the Prime Minister must be Sunni.

But the city, which is one of the least developed areas in the country and has the highest rate of poverty, tipped the balance of power in favour of Sa'ad Hariri and his March 14 Coalition in 2005.

It shunned the pro-Syria leaders, who were accused of complicity in the political crisis that accumulated in the assassination of Rafik Hariri on February 14, 2005.

Syria was implicated in the murder by a UN probe commission although Damascus denied any involvement in the murder that led to the Syrian withdrawal from Lebanon in April 2005.

Four years after the assassination of his father, Hariri's critics say he can no longer play the sympathy card because the people of this underdeveloped city have not seen any improvement in their lives. The city needs more than slogans about revenge for Rafik Hariri's murder.

"It is unacceptable that they come to the city with rosy promises few weeks before the elections and then forget all about it for the next four years," says Khaldoun Al Sharif, who is running against Hariri's list in Tripoli. Al Sharif is running on former Prime Minister Karame's list.

Karame this week accused the Hariri team of "distributing cash in Tripoli" to buy another victory.

"The Future Movement has been using the city as disposable ammunition in its struggle against Syria and Hezbollah. They risked turning the tolerant city to a stronghold of religious extremists because they wanted to mobilise people against [Shiite] Hezbollah," he told Gulf News.

Tripoli needs a real development project, "which Future fails to do," he added.

But Allouch says the Future Movement is not just about uncovering the truth of the Rafik Hariri murder.

"Of course, it is important to remind the people that the killers [of Rafik Hariri] will be brought to justice. It is a central theme in our programme but the Future is about a comprehensive platform that underscores the need to build a viable constitutional state, encouraging national and foreign investments to create employment opportunities, and boost national industries and agriculture," he explained.

But the move by Sa'ad Hariri to court Miqati, who is on the other divide of the political spectrum, indicates he was concerned about a "real electoral battle" that would have bloodied him and raised concerns about his leadership of the Sunni community, in a country where religion and politics are intertwined.

"Of course he is afraid to loose Tripoli because then he will not be able to claim that he is the undisputed leader of the Sunnis," Eisa Al Ayoubi, a political analyst, from Tripoli, told Gulf News.

"Future is not even sure Miqati will go along come election day," he said.