How one Iranian flight pushed Saudi Arabia and Houthis towards war

Dubai: It began with an Iranian plane trying to land in Yemen.

Within weeks, Saudi Arabia and the Iran-backed Houthi militants were exchanging fire, ships and oil facilities were being targeted, ports were being bombed and troops were preparing for the possibility of another ground war.

Now, a dispute over a single flight has become something much bigger: A struggle over who controls Yemen’s skies, ports and territorial waters — and whether Iran can use the country to put pressure on Saudi Arabia as its confrontation with the United States widens.

The escalation has brought Yemen closer to full-scale conflict than at any time since a UN-brokered truce largely halted fighting in 2022.

“Yemen today faces a greater risk of renewed large-scale conflict than at any point since the UN-brokered truce of April 2022,” UN envoy Hans Grundberg warned.

The flight that started it

The immediate trigger came on July 13.

An Iranian Mahan Air flight carrying a high-ranking Houthi delegation was heading for Sanaa without prior approval from the Saudi-led coalition.

Such authorisation has been required under restrictions imposed during Yemen’s decade-long conflict.

For the Houthis, however, the flight represented something larger: A challenge to Saudi control over Yemeni airspace and an assertion that Sanaa should be able to determine which aircraft enter territory under Houthi control.

Saudi-backed Yemeni authorities offered a compromise, according to officials cited by AP: The delegation could return to Sanaa aboard a non-Iranian airline.

The Houthis refused.

WHY THE RED SEA MATTERS

• Global trade artery: The Red Sea links the Indian Ocean to the Mediterranean through the Suez Canal, making it a crucial route between Asia and Europe.

• Bab Al Mandab chokepoint: Ships entering or leaving the Red Sea from the south must pass through the narrow strait between Yemen and the Horn of Africa.

• Houthis hold strategic coastline: Houthi-controlled western Yemen gives the group access to a long stretch of Red Sea coast and the ability to threaten shipping.

• Saudi vulnerability: Attacks on vessels and oil infrastructure can directly raise the economic and security costs for Riyadh.

• Wider Iran leverage: The Houthis give Tehran another pressure point against Saudi Arabia and its partners if the Iran conflict expands.

• Global consequences: Serious disruption can force vessels onto the much longer route around Africa, increasing shipping times, fuel costs and freight rates.

The flight went ahead aboard Mahan Air, the privately owned Iranian carrier sanctioned by the United States.

Saudi Arabia responded with an air strike that disabled Sanaa airport’s runway, preventing the aircraft from landing.

Oman intervened in an effort to prevent the confrontation escalating further, and the Saudi-led coalition eventually allowed the aircraft to land in Houthi-controlled Hodeida.

But the crisis did not end there.

From one runway to a regional confrontation

The Houthis retaliated by attacking Abha airport in southwestern Saudi Arabia and announcing a blockade of Saudi shipping in the Red Sea.

Saudi vessels and oil facilities were subsequently targeted.

The Saudi-led coalition struck back at Hodeida and Kamaran, Yemen’s largest Red Sea island, while Saudi-backed Yemeni forces were reinforced along front lines amid preparations for a possible ground offensive.

The Houthis responded by launching dozens of missiles and drones at military camps in central and southern Yemen. Dozens of troops and civilians were killed, according to Yemeni officials cited by AP.

They also attacked Mokha, severely damaging the strategically important Red Sea port controlled by Yemen’s internationally recognised government.

What began as a disagreement over landing permission had turned into a dangerous cycle of retaliation.

Iran’s message to the Gulf?

Analysts see another calculation behind the confrontation.

Yasmeen Al Eryani of the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies said the Mahan Air episode should be viewed within the wider Iran conflict.

“By activating the Yemeni front, Tehran reiterates the strategic value of that pressure lever,” she said.

The message, she argued, is that attacks on Iran can generate costs elsewhere — particularly for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states.

That gives the Yemen confrontation significance far beyond its borders.

The Houthis, strengthened by their relationship with Tehran, can threaten Saudi territory and shipping through the Red Sea while forcing Riyadh to consider the possibility of being dragged back into a war it has spent years trying to leave behind.

Houthis change the argument

There has also been an important shift in what the Houthis say they are fighting for.

Previous negotiations concentrated heavily on confidence-building measures and economic demands, including payment of salaries to civil servants in Houthi-controlled territory.

Now the argument is increasingly about sovereignty.

Ahmed Nagi, a senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group, said the Houthis were framing the dispute around Yemen’s right to control its own airspace, ports and territorial waters.

That shift makes compromise significantly harder.

It also allows the Houthis to present the confrontation domestically as a continuation of Yemen’s long war against the Saudi blockade rather than simply opening a new front on Iran’s behalf.

That matters because the group faces growing discontent over deteriorating living conditions in areas it controls.

-- With AP inputs