Congress likely to retain power

Hyderabad: With less than two weeks left for the first phase of polling in the southern Indian state of Andhra Pradesh, the electoral battle is intensifying.

All the major contenders for power are pulling out all stops in their campaign to win the hearts and minds of the voters.

As the state is going to simultaneous polls for the parliament and the state assembly, and the total number of candidates is in thousands, the electoral scenario is quiet mind-boggling.

What has made taking any call on the possible outcome in the state very difficult and risky is that for the first time in three decades the state is witnessing three-cornered or multi-cornered fights in almost each of the 42 Lok Sabha (lower house of parliament) and 294 assembly constituencies.

The big players are ruling Congress, the Grand Alliance of four opposition parties - Telugu Desam, Telangana Rashtra Samiti, Communist Party of India (CPI) and the Communist Party of India (Marxist) - and the newly launched Praja Rajyam (People's Rule) party of film star Chiranjeevi.

Andhra Pradesh will be among the few states which will be keenly watched at the national level as its outcome will contribute significantly in deciding the formation of the next government in Delhi.

As the biggest state in the south with 42 Lok Sabha seats, Andhra Pradesh has been playing the role of a king maker since 1996.

As the then chief minister Chandrababu Naidu was among the architects of the United Front government and the TDP was a partner in the governments of Deve Gowda and I.K. Gujral.

In 1998, Naidu changed sides and supported the BJP-led NDA government and remained with it till 2004. But his association with the nationalist coalition became a liability for his party as it drove away the significant Muslim minority from the TDP.

In 2004, the state surprised everybody by contributing as many as 37 Lok Sabha seats to the kitty of United Progressive Alliance (UPA).

Twenty-nine of them were won by the Congress Party and the remaining by its then allies - TRS, CPI, CPI-M and the MIM. Now in 2009, whether the UPA retains power in Delhi will largely depend on how Andhra Pradesh votes.

The state elections is another important factor in Andhra Pradesh. The Congress has its state government too at stake. Andhra Pradesh is among a handful of states which are still ruled by Congress on its own.

In this election, till now the ruling Congress party has enjoyed a slight edge as reflected in many ways. Congress had fewer problems and difficulties compared to other parties in the selection of candidates and distribution of tickets.

Congress was also ahead in putting together its election plans and going to the people with the Chief Minister Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy becoming the first major political leader to formally launch his campaign. He has already covered several Telangana districts wooing the people.

Another reason for YSR being smug with confidence about Congress retaining power is that the state does not have any strong anti-incumbency wave.

People especially in rural areas seem to be reasonably satisfied with the ruling party. The string of welfare measures ranging from free electricity to the farmers, Rs2 per kg rice, aarogyasri or free health care insurance to the poor, housing programme, increase in pension for the old, widow and handicapped persons seems to have benefited almost every family in one way or the other.

On the development front, the chief minister has made the jalayagnam or massive programme for completion of more than 40 irrigation projects across the state.

What makes Andhra Pradesh of 2009 completely different from that of 2004? Naidu's nine-year-long rule was marred by drought for seven consecutive years, breaking the back of the rural poor and putting the agriculture sector in shambles.

Adding to their woes was the steep hike in electricity tariffs and burden of debt pushing thousands of farmers to commit suicide.

Though the opposition is still alleging that farmers are still committing suicide, the rural Andhra Pradesh is not in the grip of the 2004 like crisis. On the negative side, all Congress allies of last election, except for Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen, are now aligned with the TDP.

In a state which has backward classes constituting more than 50 per cent of its population, the political power has always been cornered in the hands of upper castes. While Reddy's (5.9 per cent population) dominated the Congress, TDP always belonged to rich Kammas (3.6 per cent).

For the first time Kapus (about 10 per cent), represented by film star Chiranjeevi and his Praja Rajyam are in the race for power. Though few are ready to take the risk of making a prediction this time, Congress looks like retaining power, but with a lesser majority.