Bangkok calm but violence spreads to rural northeast

Bangkok: Relative calm has been restored to this city after widespread violence and military intervention left at least 16 dead and scores wounded, but the situation here and across Thailand is far from being safe.

Thursday, across this city of ten million, sporadic gunbattles erupted as government troops tried to clear die hard anti-government Red Shirt protesters from highrise buildings across the city.

Thai officials have imposed blanket curfews across the most populous regions of this kingdom from 8pm local time to 6am, until tomorrow.

Miscalculation

If the government thought this iron-fisted approach would end months of political standoff, they miscalculated. Yesterday, the conflict spread to the rural northeast, where four provincial halls were torched and some 13,000 anti-government protesters rallied, authorities said.

The gatherings went ahead despite the curfew, announced after enraged protesters went on the rampage in the capital after their rally base was shut down in an army offensive.

Thursday, military and security officials arrested anyone with Red Shirt materials as checkpoints were set up at most major intersections.

There are fears that the overwhelming offensive against the Red Shirts, who had occupied Bangkok's main shopping district for six weeks, will trigger trouble in the rest of the country.

Banks and government offices remained closed Thursday, and thousands of ordinary Thais wandered charred city streets that resembled war zones.

A government-imposed news blackout was also in force yesterday. Thai television channels aired happy, smiling and patriotic images for the day.

What next?

• Resistance could die down and an election plan is agreed. This seems quite possible.
• Guerrilla warfare could intensify in the countryside. Some fear this is already happening with conflict having spread to provinces.
• Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva could be dumped and a caretaker government installed. But his roadmap to early elections might stay. The longer polls are delayed the less likely it is Thailand will get the reform it needs.
• Less likely is the possibility of a unity government.