UAE weather forecast 2026: Is El Niño about to make this the hottest summer on record?

Dubai: The UAE has barely turned the corner into May, yet temperatures across the country are already running well above seasonal norms. Across the UAE, temperatures have surged above what is typical for April, with the mercury breaking 44°C in parts of the country. The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) has signalled the heat is not done climbing.

What is El Niño and why does it matter here?

El Niño is a periodic warming of the central and eastern Pacific Ocean that reorganises weather patterns worldwide. For the Arabian Gulf, its consequences are well documented: hotter summers, heavier humidity, weaker sea breezes, and a heightened risk of extreme weather events in autumn.

The UAE's natural relief during summer comes largely from the northwesterly Shamal winds. El Niño events historically suppress those winds, removing one of the few natural buffers against the Gulf's heat.

Global agencies now agree: El Niño Is coming

The world's foremost climate institutions have aligned on the same forecast. As of early April 2026, the ENSO(El Niño–Southern Oscillation) system is in a neutral phase following the end of the 2025–26 La Nina. However, the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) now signals a clear shift in the Equatorial Pacific: sea-surface temperatures are rising rapidly, pointing to a likely return of El Nino conditions as early as May–July 2026. Forecasts indicate a nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures in the upcoming three-month period.

The WMO's Chief of Climate prediction left little room for ambiguity. "After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Nino, followed by further intensification in the months that follow," said Wilfran Moufouma Okia.

That view is reinforced by ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) modelling. Climate change also affects the impact of an El Niño event, shifts in weather patterns caused by El Niño may combine with the background features of a warmer climate, including higher baseline temperatures, stronger evaporation, and moisture transport, to produce stronger impacts than historical events. In plain terms: a 2026 El Niño will not behave like the ones from a decade ago.

Meteorological agencies including NOAA and ECMWF have flagged a 61 per cent chance of El Niño developing between May and July 2026, with the event expected to peak during the autumn and early winter of 2026–2027.

Which months will the UAE feel it most?

The onset window of May–July means the UAE enters its most dangerous heat period, June through September with El Niño conditions already established or rapidly building. The peak risk falls between August and November, when extreme daytime heat coincides with maximum sea-surface warming and reduced atmospheric circulation.

El Niño conditions typically amplify existing temperature trends across the Gulf, bringing warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures, more intense heat, and potentially disrupted seasonal patterns. For the UAE, that translates into longer stretches of 45°C+ readings in inland areas, elevated overnight lows that deny the body recovery time, and humidity spikes that make the perceived temperature far more dangerous than the official figure.

City-by-city: Where temperatures stand now

AccuWeather's summer 2026 forecast is direct: "Get ready for widespread heat as El Nino strengthens." Here is how the current picture breaks down across the country, based on NCM and AccuWeather data:

Dubai: Highs up to 36°C, with overnight lows around 23°C. AccuWeather's RealFeel sits at 95°F (35°C), with coastal humidity pushing the perceived temperature higher.

Abu Dhabi: Among the warmest coastal cities, with highs reaching 38°C due to its more southerly, inland-facing position.

Sharjah: Closely tracking Dubai at 36–37°C during peak afternoon hours.

Al Ain: Inland and historically the UAE's hottest city, with afternoon peaks nudging 40°C this week.

Ras Al Khaimah and Fujairah: More temperate due to coastal breezes, generally in the 33–35°C range.

Al Dhafra (Abu Dhabi's western interior): The country's consistent heat champion, with Mezaira recording 44°C — the highest reading nationally.

By June, afternoon temperatures across Dubai, Abu Dhabi, and Sharjah are typically already hovering between 41°C and 43°C, with nights offering only partial respite in the 26–29°C range. El Nino would push those peaks higher and extend the number of days at extreme thresholds.

What residents should do

The NCM has already demonstrated its preparedness this spring, issuing targeted alerts as temperatures swung unpredictably. With El Nino onset now a high-confidence event, heat advisories, outdoor work restrictions, and public health alerts are expected to come earlier and more frequently through the summer months.

For residents, the essentials remain constant but more urgent this year: stay hydrated, minimise outdoor activity between 10am and 4pm, and follow NCM updates. Pay attention to AccuWeather's RealFeel temperature which accounts for humidity rather than the headline figure alone. In peak summer, that gap often exceeds 8°C, and it is the number that matters for personal safety.