UAE four-month forecast: El Niño likely to bring warmer, wetter weather from July to November

The National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) said there is a 98 per cent probability that El Niño conditions will prevail between July and November 2026, with temperatures and rainfall expected to be near to above seasonal averages.

In its latest seasonal forecast, the NCM said the Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomaly stood at 0.5 degrees Celsius, placing conditions within the El Niño category. The centre noted that the Niño 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific is the key climate indicator influencing weather patterns affecting the UAE.

The centre said El Niño is a periodic shift in the tropical Pacific Ocean-atmosphere system that influences weather patterns around the world, including the UAE. It noted that the Niño 3.4 region is the key climate indicator affecting the country.

Based on its outlook for July to November 2026, the NCM expects both temperatures and precipitation across the UAE to range from near average to above average as a result of the anticipated El Niño conditions.

The centre added that the status of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is monitored and updated on a monthly basis using international climate observations and forecasting models.