Is 'super El Niño' coming? UN warns of potentially historic climate event as fossil fuel emissions push planet into danger zone
Planet on edge as looming El Niño threatens to turbocharge heat, floods and drought
The odds are rising fast.
A potentially powerful El Niño is forming in the Pacific Ocean.
Climate scientists warn it could become one of the defining weather events of the decade.
The world just got another climate warning.
The World Meteorological Organization has officially confirmed the return of El Niño in early June 2026.
Scientists say the climate pattern could fuel more extreme weather across the globe in the months ahead.
What is El Nino?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern caused by unusually warm waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. It disrupts weather systems worldwide, often triggering droughts in parts of Asia and Australia, heavier rainfall in parts of the Americas, crop failures, floods, wildfires and marine heatwaves.
What is "Super El Niño"?
A "Super El Niño" is an informal term used by forecasters to describe an exceptionally strong El Niño event, typically occurring when sea surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean rise 2°C or more above average, according to the National Geographic. These massive temperature spikes trigger severe, cascading disruptions to global weather patterns, leading to extreme droughts, devastating floods, and widespread temperature spikes
Where did the term El Niño come from?
In Spanish, "El Niño" translates to "the little boy". Centuries ago, fishermen off the coast of Peru and Ecuador noticed that an unusual warming of the ocean waters occurred every few years, and it typically peaked right around the Christmas season. Over time, this localised seasonal warming became synonymous with the much larger-scale, cyclical climate pattern we know today as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
When heat builds in the Pacific Ocean
What has experts concerned is the heat already building in the Pacific Ocean.
Sea surface temperatures in parts of the tropical Pacific are running about 6 degrees Celsius above average. That is raising fears that this event could strengthen into a rare "super El Niño."
Those concerns are not new.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), the UN weather agency, said there is an 80% chance El Niño conditions will develop between June and August and a 90% chance the phenomenon will persist through at least November. While the WMO has stopped short of officially labeling it a "super El Niño," forecasters say the event could be unusually strong and significantly amplify extreme weather around the world.
Forecasts released in May projected that El Niño could reach very strong levels by autumn 2026. Some models suggested it may become one of the most powerful events in recent decades.
The last major El Niño left a lasting mark
![WORLD BRACES FOR HOTTER DAYS: A “heat dome” over western Canada and the US Pacific northwest sent temperatures soaring to new highs, triggering heat warnings from Oregon to Canada’s Arctic territories. Canada broke a national heat record when the temperature in a small town in British Columbia reached almost 46.6°C, breaking an 84-year-old record by nearly 3 degrees, with dangerously hot weather expected to continue. Residents in eastern Europe and parts of Siberia are struggling to cope with heatwaves sweeping across the region. Kuwait city’s Nawasib recorded 53.2°C, the highest temperature in the world for this year. Looks like the world is to witness some all-time temperature records. The extreme weather conditions certainly point to climate change, and the well-documented effects of human behaviour like carbon emissions on the planet. Governments must act now by setting targets to reduce methane emissions to confront climate change. [COMMENT BY: Stephen N R, Senior Associate Editor]](http://media.assettype.com/gulfnews%2F2024-11-17%2F5lkems2k%2FOPN_210628_EDIT_17a570453e3_original_ratio.jpg?w=320&auto=format%2Ccompress&fit=max)