UAE weather alert: Scattered rain, dust storms forecast as summer heat continues until August 3

Dubai: The UAE is set for a spell of rain over the coming days, with the National Centre of Meteorology (NCM) forecasting afternoon rainfall even as temperatures continue to soar well above 40°C.

According to the NCM, an unsettled weather pattern will persist from today through Monday, August 3, with convective (rainy) clouds expected to build over the country's eastern and western regions each afternoon, bringing a chance of rainfall on most days through the period.

Eastern and southern areas, which typically cover parts of Fujairah, Sharjah's east coast and the interior and southern parts of Abu Dhabi, are expected to see the most consistent cloud activity as the week progresses, making them the likeliest spots for rain. Skies will otherwise remain fair to partly cloudy.

The shift in weather is being driven by an extension of a surface low-pressure system from the east, combined with an upper-air low-pressure system, a combination that is creating favourable conditions for convective cloud formation.

Despite the chance of rain, the heat will remain firmly in place. Temperatures are expected to range between 43°C and 48°C inland, 38°C and 44°C along the coast, and 30°C to 38°C in the mountains through the forecast period.

Winds will add another layer of unpredictability. Light to moderate south-easterly to north-easterly winds of 10 to 25 km/h are forecast to freshen at times, reaching up to 45 km/h inland and around 35 km/h over coastal and mountainous areas. When clouds develop, accompanying winds could stir up dust and sand, temporarily cutting visibility in some areas.

Sea conditions, meanwhile, are expected to stay slight in both the Arabian Gulf and the Sea of Oman throughout the period.

Dusty conditions are likely to accompany the stronger gusts on several days, particularly Thursday and Monday, when winds picking up alongside the convective clouds are expected to raise dust and sand, cutting visibility in exposed areas.

Friday: Afternoon convective clouds are likely to form over the eastern and southern regions, with a chance of rainfall. South-easterly to north-easterly winds will freshen at times to around 40 km/h, while seas remain slight.

Saturday: Fair to partly cloudy conditions will continue, with clouds building over eastern and southern areas by afternoon. Winds will shift from south-easterly to north-westerly, blowing at 10 to 20 km/h and gusting up to 30 km/h. Seas will stay slight.

Sunday: Similar conditions are expected, with afternoon convective clouds likely once again over the east and south. South-easterly winds turning north-westerly will reach up to 30 km/h, with the sea remaining calm.

Monday: The unsettled pattern rounds off with another probability of afternoon convective clouds over eastern and southern regions, potentially bringing rainfall. South-easterly to north-easterly winds will freshen to 40 km/h, raising dust in exposed areas, while seas stay slight.

The rain-bearing pattern comes against the backdrop of a strengthening El Niño. The NCM has forecast a 98 per cent probability of El Niño conditions prevailing between July and November 2026, after sea surface temperatures in the key Niño 3.4 region of the equatorial Pacific rose above the threshold that officially defines the phenomenon.

The centre's latest seasonal outlook puts the current Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature index at 1.2°C, placing the pattern within the moderate El Niño category. The UAE monitors this region closely, as it remains the primary indicator of potential shifts in the country's climate.

Looking further ahead, the NCM's outlook suggests that temperatures and rainfall across the UAE are likely to run near to above their seasonal averages between August and December, with the effects expected to become more pronounced as the period draws to a close.