UAE forecasts 99 per cent chance of El Niño conditions through December 2026
Temperatures and rain expected to remain near to above seasonal averages through year-end
Abu Dhabi: The UAE's latest seasonal forecast indicates a 99 per cent probability that El Niño conditions will continue from August to December 2026, with temperatures and rainfall expected to range from near normal to above normal, particularly during the latter part of the period.
According to the National Center of Meteorology's latest seasonal outlook, the current Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature index stands at 1.2°C, placing the climate pattern within the moderate El Niño category.
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The forecast says conditions across the tropical Pacific remain consistent with El Niño after sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific stayed above average over the past month, while western Pacific temperatures remained below average.
El Niño is a recurring climate pattern involving changes in ocean and atmospheric conditions across the equatorial Pacific Ocean that can influence weather patterns worldwide. The UAE monitors the Niño 3.4 region as the primary indicator of potential impacts on the country's climate.
The outlook projects that temperatures and rainfall across the UAE are likely to be near to above seasonal averagesbetween August and December, with the effects expected to become more noticeable toward the end of the forecast period.
