U.S. maintains war footing despite allied reservations

The Bush administration has concluded it is highly unlikely that an upcoming January 27 report by United Nations weapons inspectors will provide a definitive trigger for war against Iraq, but is determined that the date will mark the start of the endgame in efforts to disarm Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, a senior administration official said
on Saturday.

"People who are saying that the 27th is not an important day don't know what they are talking about,'' the official said. "It is a very important day'' marking "the beginning of a final phase'' that the administration sees as quickly leading to decisive action.

The official's comments appeared designed to refute a spate of suggestions over the past week that war with Iraq was increasingly unlikely and that pressure on Baghdad had eased.

Iraq's passive acceptance of U.N. inspections, and the failure thus far to find any prohibited weaponry, have led U.S. allies and potential military partners to argue that Hussain is "in his box'' and poses no immediate threat justifying the use of force against him.

Many, including members of the UN Security Council and some in Congress who back Iraq's ultimate disarmament, by force if necessary, have said any Iraqi weapons programmes or aggressive plans are effectively frozen as long as the inspectors are there. Some say the issue should be put aside while the administration deals with the more urgent problem of North Korea.

But the senior official compared the current round of cold feet to what happened during the 1990s, when ``Saddam Hussein managed to erode the (UN Security) Council's unity in much the same way, and to play off members'' while Iraq continued secret weapons development for years despite the presence of inspectors. The result was more than a decade of council disagreement and indecision that cannot be allowed to happen again, the official said.

"Let me be very clear,'' the official said."What we can't do is let Iraqis turn the inspection regime into a trap for the international community.'' Even though the inspectors may not uncover weapons of mass destruction, it is not enough ... to declare Iraq "not clean but not dirty.
What we're saying is that with the Iraqi record, there is a presumption of guilt and not innocence. It's not a matter of (the United States) causing a crisis now. It's a matter of being resolute enough ... to decide that the Security Council should not be dragged down this road again.''

The administration has been trying hard to calibrate its public position on what happens next and when, keeping up its military pressure on Iraq and continuing the search for allies in an attack while continuing to consult within the Security Council. It has been anxious not to appear overeager to declare the inspection process over, while making it clear that no news out of Baghdad does not constitute good news.

"The idea that the inspectors have to find something, or that we have to show them where to go to find something'' is incorrect, the official said.

But the public presentation, said one informed source, has been "clumsy'' at times. Both the administration and Britain, its closest ally on Iraq, worried that warnings late last month that the 27th could be D-Day may have gone too far in appearing to pre-empt the inspectors' report on Iraqi cooperation due that day.

Last week's insistence by Secretary of State Colin Powell that the 27th was not a decision day, and British Prime Minister Tony Blair's public recommendation that the inspectors be given more time, were designed to lower expectations but may have gone too far in the other direction, the source said.

Short of action by Baghdad or a major weapons discovery by inspectors, it is not clear whatwould provoke definitive movement one way or the other. Administration officials who discussed the issue in recent days declined to set a time limit on the new phase beginning January 27.

© Los Angeles Times-Washington Post News Service