From Paul the Octopus to Shaheen the Camel — ranking the World Cup’s most famous animal oracles

Several animals have become famous for "predicting" World Cup and other football match results.

While their success is generally attributed to chance rather than any real predictive ability, some achieved remarkable records and became global celebrities.

We give you a short list of the most famous animal predictors in previous FIFA World Cup, below:

Paul the Octopus

Tournament: 2010 FIFA World Cup

How it worked:

• Two transparent boxes containing food were placed in Paul's tank.

• Each box displayed the flag of a competing team.

• Whichever box Paul opened first was considered his prediction.

Record:

• Correctly predicted all 7 of Germany's matches.

• Correctly predicted Spain's victory over the Netherlands in the final.

• Finished with 8 correct predictions out of 8.

Accuracy: 100%

Paul remains the most successful and famous football-predicting animal in history.

Shaheen the Camel

Tournament: 2014 FIFA World Cup

A camel from the United Arab Emirates gained media attention by predicting several World Cup matches.

Record:

• Correctly predicted a number of early knockout matches.

• Eventually made incorrect picks later in the tournament.

Accuracy: Mixed

Nelly the Elephant

Tournament: 2014 World Cup

Method:

• Kicked a football toward one of two goals marked with national flags.

Record:

• Predicted Germany's victory in the final.

• Missed several earlier matches.

Achilles the Cat

Tournament: 2018 FIFA World Cup

A deaf white cat living in Saint Petersburg's museum became Russia's answer to Paul.

Method:

• Chose between food bowls bearing team flags.

Record:

• Correctly predicted several high-profile matches, including Russia's opening win.

• Accuracy declined later in the tournament.

Accuracy: Roughly 60–70%.

Cabeção the Turtle

Cabeção, or Big Head, a resident of Praia Do Forte in Brazil, predicted match outcomes of the 2014 World Cup.

Method:

The first of his predictions was Brazil’s win over Croatia, which was the opening match for the turtle’s home country. Cabeção would make his predictions by selecting which fish to eat under the participating country’s flags.

Record:

Cabeção's prediction record for the 2014 tournament was mixed:

• Correct Prediction: Correctly predicted Brazil's opening match win against Croatia.

• Incorrect Prediction: Incorrectly predicted a win for Mexico in their match against Brazil (the game ultimately ended in a 0-0 draw).

Harry the Crocodile

Tournament: 2010 World Cup

Method:

• Chose between food items associated with competing teams.

Record:

• Correctly predicted several Australian matches.

• Later produced incorrect predictions.

Fiona the Hippo

Tournament: 2018 World Cup

The famous Cincinnati Zoo hippo made predictions for selected matches.

Record:

• Some correct, some incorrect.

• Mostly a publicity attraction.

How good were they really?

Statistically, most animal predictors performed only slightly better than chance.

For example:

• A 50-50 prediction has a 50% chance of being correct.

• Getting 8 consecutive predictions right (Paul's feat) has odds of roughly 1 in 256.

• Unusual, but not impossible.

Scientists generally regard these successes as:

• Random chance,

• Selective reporting of successful predictions,

• Human tendency to notice patterns.

Ranking the Most Successful

No animal predictor has ever matched the performance of Paul the Octopus, whose perfect 8-for-8 run during the 2010 World Cup turned him into a global phenomenon.

Every subsequent animal predictor has been measured against Paul's extraordinary record — and none has come close.