Asia Cup: Bangladesh in battle for survival against rampaging Afghanistan

Imagine playing out two maiden overs at the start of an innings in a 20-overs-a-side match in which the first six are Powerplay overs where the fielding side can only have two fielders outside the 30-yard circle! Well … that’s precisely what Bangladesh did against Sri Lanka and their study in caution makes it only the second such instance in a men's T20 match between two Full-Member teams, with Zimbabwe doing it against the West Indies in 2010.

It’s hardly surprising that The Tigers were thereafter mauled by The Lions after managing just 139 runs in their remaining 18 overs. Prior to huffing and puffing their way to victory against Hong Kong in their opener, Bangladesh skipper Litton Das had said: “Our first target is to win the match. Net run rate will be at the back of our minds, but we’ll have to assess the situation on the day. We don’t want to risk too much. Winning comes first. If conditions allow, then we can think about bigger margins.”

Those words may well come back to haunt him, for after two matches, Bangladesh are sitting in third, behind Sri Lanka and Afghanistan and nothing less than a win ‑ preferably a resounding one ‑ in Abu Dhabi against the Rashid Khan-led side is going to help their cause.

But then, beating Afghanistan is easier said than done. With a world-class spin attack and some explosive batters in the side, the Afghans have shown they are ready to go the distance, despite having ‘choked’ before the finishing line a couple of times before.

Here’s what to expect in this crucial clash for both these sides …

How the odds are stacked against Bangladesh

For all of Litton Das’ brave words, Bangladesh find themselves in a precarious position after two matches. They must beat Afghanistan by a big margin, but in case the margin is small, hope that the Afghans lose to Sri Lanka in their last match. In case Sri Lanka lose to Afghanistan, then all three teams will be on 4 points each and the net run rate will come into the equation.

All these permutations and combinations will, however, only play out if they beat Afghanistan first and that in itself is a big if. As of today, Sri Lanka, by virtue of their win against Hong Kong yesterday, have 4 points from their 2 matches with a net run rate of +1.546; Afghanistan’s net run rate is +4.700 after one match; and Bangladesh are languishing in third with 2 points from 2 matches and a net run rate of -0.650.

Why Afghanistan only need a win

The demolition job against Hong Kong has put Afghanistan in the driver’s seat for a place in the Super Fours. Yes, they could still lose to Bangladesh and then to Sri Lanka and be out of the reckoning, but recent form suggests they have enough in their arsenal to oust Bangladesh. The two sides haven’t met for over a year in the shorter white-ball format, but Afghanistan hold a 7-5 edge in the head-to-heads, winning their previous encounter in the T20 World Cup last year.

All in all, the ‘Group of Death’ truly seems to be living up to its billing.