COVID-19: What we still don't know 6 months later

Dubai: The virus has been around the world in 180 days, locking us all up, robbing millions of jobs and leaving a trail of death.

It did not really explode with a massive, viral "Big Bang”. Rather, it was like a slow-motion release of a horror movie, with a pretty quiet, puzzling start. We have yet to see its ending.

Depending on who “patient zero” was, and how the person actually got infected and started spreading the virus, the timeline could change.

No answers, just questions

Half-a-year later, numerous questions swril around everyone's head as they emerge from lockdowns. Scientists, given the limited time SARS-CoV-2 had been wreaking havoc across the globe, have no ready answers on those questions.

There’s only hope that a vaccine, at least one of the 10 frontrunners, could be ready as early as October.

What if it takes more time? What if no one trusts its efficacy, the trial process, or even the manufacturer?

And what if this present-day scourge just mysteriously goes away, like its elder sibling SARS-CoV-1 did?

Complexity and uncertainty are the defining traits of this virus. Here's one basic unanswered question: Who was “patient zero”?

That question may linger for a long time, perhaps forever, and never get a proper answer.

There were reports that the first suspected case was diagnosed on December 1, 2019 in Wuhan, China. So by inference, given the virus' average of five-day incubation period now known to science, the infection took place days earlier, in November.

And there had been obfuscations by local Chinese officials in Wuhan city in the way they dealt with the Chinese clinicians, the doctors who blew the whistle about the “atypical pneumonia” they’ve seen in a growing number of patients back in December.

The Chinese have admitted, though belatedly, their "shortcomings" in handling this pandemic's earlier chapter, penalised the erring officials and hailed Dr. Li Wenliang, a whistle-blower who died of COVID-19, as a hero.

The information float kicked up speculations and conspiracy theories — about a supposed “bioweapons” attack or an inadvertent release of the virus from a high-security biosafety lab in Wuhan. US President Donal Trump has unleashed a tirade against the WHO, terminating America's relationship with the world body after he accused it of being a "puppet" of China.  

Some scientists, on the other hand, point to the virus’ DNA signature as evidence that it has a natural, rather than man-made, origins.

ًWhile the jury is still out on this, scientists have gone on overdrive to do research across the world and have a better grip on the pandemic.

Despite the huge body of research done in the last six months published in the likes of The Lancet, Chinese Medical Association, Jama, CDC, Science, NEJM and PLOS, scientific knowledge about this microscoping pathogen remains woefully lacking.

Mystery

Scientists wrestle with key questions. 

For one, this new coronavirus quite unlike any other previously known or seen: SARS-CoV-2 behaves like the flu in terms of ease of transmission (and triggering a deadly kind of pneumonia in severe cases), while "silent spreaders” can pass it on even when they are “asymptomatic”.

However, in terms of its structure, origin in bats and overall symptoms, it’s similar to other, previously known coronaviruses likes SARS-CoV-1 and MERS.

What adds to uncertainty were the sometimes conflicting guidelines and public pronouncements issued by the WHO about the disease.

For example, on April 2, 2020, WHO officials said there’s no need for healthy people to wear masks. The CDC had also issued guidelines stating masks need to be worn by only those who are really sick and display symptoms (cough, cold and sore throat) or by the hospital staff who are exposed to a high degree of infection.

Both the WHO and CDC have later “reassessed” the guidelines, especially when research emerged that micro-particles may stay longer in the air than previously thought.

Clinicians are also baffled by the whole range of symptoms which COVID-19 kicks up.

Unknowns

Over the last six months, much has been known about the virus. But More questions remain.

It may take some time for scientists to unravel its mysteries. And it would greatly help if the following questions were to get answers:

A growing body of evidence suggests that infected children can transmit the virus, possibly as easily as adults. When children attend school, they come in contact with three times as many people as average adults do, providing more opportunities for children to become “super spreaders”.

What we know so far

TAKEAWAYS

• Much of the coronavirus pandemic remains a mystery, though the sharpest minds are at work to better understand it.

• Humans have split the atom, sent probes beyond the Solar system — yet we still don’t know much about this tiny, microscopic coronavirus among and within us.

• Most of the world are affected economically and drained emotionally by this pandemic, yet we don’t know for sure if we’re going to be safe when go out, or when we fly again to see our family and friends.

• We’ve learnt how to identify people through AI-driven surveillance with split-second searches; yet six months on, we still don’t know who is “patient zero” of this pandemic.

• This virus has humbled all of us in more than ways than one.

• But it may have helped renew the face of the earth, or reduce the stress on the planet — if only for a little bit, due to significantly less carbon emitted when we all stayed home.