US in a spot over Iraq impasse

The ongoing political process in Iraq has reached a virtual dead-end that has embarrassed all political blocs, and placed the US in an unenviable situation.

The political stalemate in Iraq, which is the result of political wrangling, has become an obstacle to government formation.

The main political coalitions — Al Iraqiya, State of Law coalition and the Iraqi National Coalition — have nothing more to give, because each one of them is barracked behind its own private agenda.

The positive spirit that prevailed in the short period of bilateral negotiations has diminished. Moreover, the statements of Iraqi politicians against each other have become offensive.

The Kurdish coalition on the other hand is quietly standing aside observing the situation.

Coinciding with the prevailing state of affairs is the US forces' drawdown by the end of this month, the return of terrorist violence, and the increasing anger of the Iraqi street because of the deteriorating political situation and the worsening living conditions.

Amid this tense atmosphere, Iraqi political blocs are becoming increasingly convinced of the necessity of external interference to break the gridlock.

Big question marks arise over the results of such interferences, and the suspension of the country's political life. Today, there are three lines of regional and international interference to the detriment of Iraqi political process. The first is the US call for an alliance between the two major winning blocs — Al Iraqiya and the State of Law coalition, favouring a second term for Nouri Al Maliki as prime minister and Eyad Allawi's appointment as head of the Political Council for National Security with vast authorities to be agreed upon, despite the fact that this council does not enjoy Constitutional sanction.

The second is the Arab proposal backed by Turkey pushing for Allawi's ascension to power as prime minister.

Iranians want to mend the rift between the Sate of Law coalition and the Iraqi National Coalition. Iran is for the post of prime minister to be filled by a candidate from one of the two blocs, even if the candidate is not to its liking.

Numerous visits of key US officials, including US Vice-President Joe Biden, have not succeeded in breaking the political stalemate. Iran has also failed in bringing together the political powers it supports in Iraq, to ensure the appointment of a prime minister. Therefore, it is probable that the crisis will be resolved externally.

A UN Security Council communiqué on August 4, pointed clearly to Iraq's remaining under Chapter Seven, while extending the international trusteeship on Iraq for another year. The Security Council's statement also reprimanded Iraqi political blocs for failure to reach an agreement on government formation.

There are two probable causes for the Iraqi political situation. One stems from the good intentions of all political blocs, as the three main coalitions have not shown flexibility to overcome the obstacles. The second may be a carefully planned process, aimed at destroying the political process in the country to force the US to give up its Middle East project that was called for by former US president George Bush.

Amid these complications in Iraq's political scene, the US may apply another round of pressure in the coming days to bring about a compromise.

If the US fails, it will have no other option but to resort to a UN resolution to form a government. In that case, Ad Melkert, the UN's special representative in Iraq, will be authorised to choose a prime minister, like in May, 2004.

However these two solutions will only postpone the problem for another year or two, while failing to resolve it. Moreover, this crisis will recur every four years. A successful resolution of the situation is possible only confronting it.

An important question begging for an answer would be who is responsible for the problem? Does the problem lie with the leaders of the political blocs or the political process itself? The defect may be in the political process itself.

The hastily written constitution itself may have its share of problems as it failed to bring about understanding among heads of sects necessary to build a modern state.

Dr Mohammad Akef Jamal is an Iraqi writer based in Dubai.