SOFA raises more queries

After months of negotiations, the United States and Iraq have produced a draft agreement outlining how US troops will operate in Iraq.

The Iraqi Political Council started its SOFA (Status of Forces Agreement) draft discussions a few days ago. This council is an entity that was established to contain the diverse political blocs and coalitions ruling Iraq.

The current SOFA draft is by far the best reached by the two parties. The new draft states that American troops could face trial before Iraqi courts for major crimes committed outside their bases and when not on missions. The draft also calls for the US troops to leave Iraqi cities by the end of June and withdraw completely from the country by December 31, 2011, unless the government in Baghdad asks some of them to stay for training or security support.

It also would give the Iraqis a greater role in US military operations, and full control of the Baghdad International Zone that includes the US embassy and major Iraqi government offices.

Now if the Iraqi Political Council endorses the SOFA draft, it will be sent to the parliament for its stamp of approval. The Kurds will give it their nod, the Sadrists and the Sunnis will object, and the majority will demand fine tunings and modifications.

US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates announced that he believes the draft agreement "adequately" protects US troops in all facets of their operations from combat to legal protections.

Now if all goes well, and the agreement is signed, Iraq will address the UN Security Council for the lifting of Chapter 7 and will announce that the "Multi-National Forces" mission in Iraq has been accomplished. Iraq will be a full sovereign State and will be able to demand and receive its funds that have been sitting in the bank in Paris for over 15 years now.

Watching the US presidential candidates in their final debate a few days ago, it was evident that Republican Presidential candidate John McCain will need a little miracle to make it to the White House. It was also evident that Democratic candidate Barack Obama will be the next US President, unless another miracle happens.

The Democrats have expressed concern that the agreement could tie the hands of the next president, and Obama has called for a more rapid draw-down of US combat forces.

So what will happen if Obama decides to refuse the signed agreement unless it is ratified by the US Senate, while the US administration insists that a SOFA would not require Senate ratification? What will happen if Obama refuses to recognise the SOFA point blank?

Sami Al Askari, the Iraqi prime minister's advisor and Member of Parliament, said the issue cannot be dismissed lightly. "The US is under pressure to reach an agreement before the end of the year when a UN mandate for its forces in Iraq runs out," he said.