Mixing the cards in the Arabian Gulf: Iran’s dangerous gamble against the GCC

Amid the accelerating developments and the continued treacherous Iranian attacks against the GCC states, particularly the UAE, and in the midst of the falsehoods promoted by the Iranian regime and its sympathisers in our Arab region, some voices continue to repeat the claim that the missile and drone strikes launched by the Iranian Revolutionary Guard and the Iranian army against vital Emirati and Gulf facilities are aimed at American bases and interests and are therefore acts of self-defense.

They even claim that the attacks are focused on residential areas housing the families of American soldiers and offices linked to Israel. Yet reality exposes these claims as nothing more than fabrications. The disgraceful attacks attempted to target Dubai International Airport and other airports in Kuwait, as well as oil facilities, hotels, and residential buildings that the treacherous neighbour across our Arabian Gulf sought to strike. All these attempts failed, thanks to the readiness of our armed forces and the efficiency of the advanced air defence systems they possess.

Deep-seated hostility

There are many indications of the deep-seated resentment and hostility harboured by Iranian political and military leaders, who have long spoken in slogans that collapsed at the first serious test of their intentions. For years, they deceived neighbouring countries and, in reality, deceived no one but themselves with hollow phrases such as “good neighbourliness,” “cooperation,” and “shared interests.”

Unfortunately, many researchers and analysts fell into the trap of these slogans and even believed them, to the extent of categorising the Iranian political arena into what they called reformists and conservatives. Soon enough, however, everyone awakened to a volcano of hatred reflected in attacks involving more than a thousand missiles and drones, all of which were intercepted and destroyed within the territory of the UAE. This number exceeded the attacks directed by Iran toward Israel and toward American naval forces that continue to deliver heavy air strikes against the regime without pause.

Catastrophic theory

Another illusion embraced by the Iranian regime is that raising the cost of the war by attempting to choke the arteries of Gulf economies and pushing neighbouring states to pressure the United States and Israel to halt the fighting represents the optimal strategy for responding to the attacks it faces. This notion may appear tempting in theory, but in reality, it is catastrophic, devoid of even the most basic standards of humanity, ethics, or strategic wisdom.

It also stands in stark contradiction to the Iranian theocratic regime’s claims about Islam and Islamic values, which bear no relation to its actions. Indeed, such behaviour constitutes an affront to Islam and to Iran’s Muslim neighbours, whose economies it seeks to damage and whose peoples’ security and stability it attempts to undermine, while conveniently forgetting that it has repeatedly sought to claim leadership positions within international organisations and blocs that include Islamic states.

Unjustified attacks

The greatest falsehood propagated by the real “Great Satan” in our region, and one that, unfortunately, still deceives some segments of Arab public opinion, relates to attempts to justify the attacks on the UAE and its fellow GCC states on the grounds that they host American military bases. This allegation can only convince those who are unaware of the facts, those with short memories, and those among the followers of this treacherous regime in our Arab world who lack a full understanding of reality. Hosting military bases or engaging in joint military cooperation with other countries is a sovereign right of Gulf states, guaranteed by international law and beyond dispute.

More importantly, this cooperation has deepened over the years precisely because of the absence of trust across the two shores of the Arabian Gulf. It is worth recalling that since the 1979 Khomeini Revolution, the Iranian regime has taken no steps that inspire confidence or signal genuine goodwill toward its regional neighbours. From the earliest days of the revolution, it adopted the slogan of “exporting the revolution,” openly threatening Gulf capitals and investing vast state resources in building militias designed to strategically encircle the GCC states through networks extending into Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and elsewhere.

Defence agreements

The GCC states have committed no wrongdoing against Iran or any other country. All they have done is strengthen their armed forces and conclude defence agreements to safeguard their security. Should the GCC states have stood idle in the face of a neighbour that occupies three islands belonging to the UAE and refuses even to consider recourse to international arbitration or justice to resolve this issue, which concerns the sovereignty of a neighbouring Muslim state? Should the GCC states have simply watched the continued development of missile and nuclear arsenals on the opposite shore without taking any measures to protect their security and the well-being of their people? Were we expected to remain passive observers while a regime repeatedly threatens to export its slogans and its turbulent revolution, which has brought the Iranian people nothing but poverty and deteriorating living conditions, to our stable societies, which seek only development, a better future, and greater prosperity for their citizens?

Dr Mohamed Abdullah Al Ali is the CEO and Founder of the new TRENDS Research & Advisory