Change is on the cards

John Howard's conservative Australian government was always living on borrowed time.

He snatched an extra term in government by manipulating the refugee issue based on an infamous claim of "children thrown overboard" and arguing that Australia will decide who and under what conditions people will come to Australia.

That has always been the policy of any government. Labor Party fell for this line and the hysteria after 9/11 was cleverly capitalised on by Howard, who was in Washington at the time of the Twin Towers attack.

The conventional wisdom is that governments lose elections but so can opposition parties, as Australian Labor and New Zealand's National have proven.

What are the implications and lessons for New Zealand and our region of having, for the first time in Australia's history, Labor governments in every state, territory and now federal government?

Optimism is the opium of politics, New Zealand leaders will all read into the result what suits them. New Zealand Labour Party will say the substance of the Kevin Rudd campaign, education, climate change, reconciling with indigenous people and warm relations with ethnic groups, a balanced industrial relations system, proves they have a popular progressive agenda.

New Zealand National will say it was time for a change and tired governments need to be replaced.

Labour will be worried that even with good figures of low unemployment, record investment in health and education, people don't seem to be grateful.

National will note the skill of Australian Labor leader Rudd who defused tax cuts and other wedge issues such as Howard, late in life, discovering problems in the Aboriginal communities, and sending in the police and military.

Secretly hoping Labor would become incoherent with rage. "Me, too-ing" worked. John Key will "me, too" on every issue Labor gets ahead on. Howard promised an extra $60 billion worth of expenditure this year.

Labor agreed. The Conservatives spent $300 million in government advertising, mirroring some of the doubtful New Zealand Government publicity campaigns. This became the symbol of a desperate government, cynically using taxpayers' money.

Rudd aced Howard's showcase Apec Conference of leaders, chatting with Chinese leaders in Mandarin, proving his foreign policy credentials. He even made a personal pilgrimage to New York to dine with media magnate Rupert Murdoch.

Favours

Overall, the Australian result favours New Zealand Labour. Helen Clark has done what Howard couldn't, she has refreshed her Cabinet.

She's spending taxpayer money, as did Howard, to promote her government in a ruthless, calculated way and is now passing a law to restrict and close down private spending on issues that could embarrass her government.

People who want to fund anti-government publicity in an election year will have to register, and expenditure will be limited. For some reason those who have always fought for these issues, such as the civil liberties groups, are silent.

In the old days, the right wing closed down dissent using the threat of communism, now the left closes down dissent by pointing at the obnoxious brethren types.

But these so-called Christians tried to spend millions of dollars at the last election to change the government. You don't measure freedom by defending those who agree with you but by defending the rights of those who hold views that you deplore.

On matters of substances, trade, regional security, little will change because national interests do not really change that much with governments.

However, both governments are now closer on issues such as Iraq, China, and how to handle insecurity in the Pacific. What will be on the agenda in Australia will be the republic, alternative liberal leaders in Australia support Rudd on the republic.

This will impact upon New Zealand and will be a useful diversion for the New Zealand Government. All this is good news for New Zealand Labour.

Mike Moore is a former prime minister of New Zealand and former Director-General of the World Trade Organisation Adjunct Professor, La Trobe University, Australia.