Ahtisaari for Kosovo independence

The UN Special Representative, Martti Ahtisaari, visited Pristina and Belgrade last week presenting his proposal for the future status of Kosovo. In all but word, the Ahtisaari report suggests Kosovo has the right to be independent from Serbia. Telling are also the reactions from the two capitals. Belgrade leadership unequivocally rejected the report; Pristina on the other hand was in jubilation on Friday night.

The Finnish diplomat is proposing that Kosovo shall be governing itself, and that it shall have the right to negotiate and conclude international agreements, including the right to seek membership in international organisations. The report also suggests the creation of a Kosovo Security Force - 2,500 active members strong. Continued international supervision is prescribed. An International Civilian Representative (ICR), double-hatted as the EU Special Representative, will replace the UNMIK mission which the report suggests should close down 120 days after the settlement comes into force.

The EU is outlined as having a central role in the post-settlement period, ensuring that the settlement is implemented according to the spirit of the document and that the rule of law and minority rights are guaranteed.

The institutional and legal requirements which Ahtisaari outlined and which Kosovo must now meet are high, but Kosovo is ready for this next step. The legal limbo which has overshadowed the province and Serbia alike must end. Kosovo, Serbia and the region need constitutional and institutional clarity in order to move decisively forward in reforms and the European integration process. The European perspective is the only objective long-term solution for the Western Balkans, which has been on hold partially also due to the unresolved Kosovo status issue.

Resolving the status issue won't solve all the problems, however. As suggested in the Ahtisaari report, much work remains to be done in the judiciary and security sectors and on ensuring minority rights. A failure in these areas could lead to partition in north Kosovo, which would undermine EU and international policy in the region and call into question broader regional stability and territorial integrity of Bosnia and Macedonia.

Kosovo has a modern macroeconomic framework in place that features a broad base tax system. It has a stable currency and it incorporates most elements of a market economy. However, unemployment in Kosovo is strikingly high - estimated at 60 per cent. The productivity rate is low. Also low is Kosovo's overall economic output. These are by no means indicators particular to Kosovo. They are regional problems, which makes the resolution of the Kosovo final status all the more urgent. Serbia's objections to the Ahtisaari report are shortsighted. As stated in the introductory clause, the report is drafted with the aim to define the provisions necessary for a future Kosovo that is viable, sustainable and stable. This means managed independence in the short to medium term and full independence in the long run.

Belgrade is not in a position to develop Kosovo into a viable political and economic unit. The Kosovo Albanians which count for close to 95 per cent of the population have no interest in sharing their lot with Serbia. Pristina is eager to establish a new platform for cooperation with Belgrade based on two equal and independent units. For Belgrade this is in fact a win-win scenario.

No real responsibilities

On the one hand, the Ahtisaari proposal demands that the rights of the Kosovo Serb are overcompensated by Pristina and foresees no real responsibilities for Belgrade. It is clear that Belgrade could not guarantee the same for ethnic Albanians. At the same time, Serbia's comparative economic power gives it a favourable platform from which to re-enter Kosovo. Belgrade has few other options on the table. The international consensus is mounting behind the Ahtisaari report. Even Moscow which thus far stood squarely behind Belgrade seems to be supporting the report - Russia recently backed the Contact Group's statement supporting the Ahtisaari process.

The Security Council debate is the next step and in all likelihood, Ahtisaari's recommendations will be adopted largely unchanged. If Moscow begins to feel that the EU and the US will recognise Kosovo's independence even without a Security Council resolution, Russian President Vladamir Putin will ditch his support for Belgrade.

The moderate Serbian politicians, such as President Tadic and his Democratic Party, would be wise to distance themselves from the Kosovo issue at this point and focus exclusively on a pro-EU agenda. Kosovo's independence is just a matter of time and Serbia's political energies are now better invested elsewhere.

Borut Grgic is the Director of the Institute for Strategic Studies in Ljubljana.