Unexpected twists in Oscar race: 'Sinners' and Michael B Jordan challenge front-runners 'One Battle After Another'

Dubai: The road to the Oscars has felt unusually long this year. By the time the Academy Awards arrive on March 15, nearly 11 months will have passed since Sinners first electrified audiences in April, while several contenders have been making the awards circuit since their premieres at the Cannes Film Festival in May.

But the drawn-out season has had an unintended side effect: it has kept the race fluid. When films remain in the spotlight for months, early assumptions can unravel and late momentum can shift the narrative.

For much of the campaign, Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another appeared to be cruising through awards season, steadily collecting trophies and industry praise.

Yet a late surge by Sinners, coupled with Michael B. Jordan’s recent win at the Screen Actors Guild Awards, has complicated the picture and injected fresh uncertainty into what once seemed like a predictable race.

With final ballots due Thursday, the Oscars — which had looked like a coronation a few weeks ago — now feel far more competitive. Here’s a look at where the major categories stand as the voting window closes.

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Best Picture

Where Things Stand

'One Battle After Another' has won at the Golden Globes, the BAFTAs, the Producers Guild and the Directors Guild. But its nearly unblemished record was shaken up at Sunday's Actor Awards (formerly the SAG Awards), where “Sinners” took the top prize. You'd have to have quite a few rounds at the “Sinners” juke joint to convince yourself that anything else has much of a chance.

What has the edge

The tea leaves are strongest for Anderson's “One Battle After Another.” The Producers Guild, which uses a preferential ballot like the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences does, is among the most predictive of bellwethers. Their winners have matched the last five years and in eight of the last 10 years.

The actors guild best ensemble prize, on the other hand, has a shaky track record. In the last 31 years, the SAG winner has matched the Oscar champ only 15 times. The win for “Sinners,” though, came right in the midst of Oscar voting. It was a good time to show out. So this race feels close to a coin flip, with a Warner Bros. movie on both sides. The awards season resume makes “One Battle After Another” the front-runner. But “Sinners,” even with a record-setting 16 Oscar nominations, gets to play the underdog.

Best actor

Where Things Stand

This has been one of the most competitive and hard-to-call races of the season. Look at Leonardo DiCaprio. He gives one of the best performances of his career, in the best picture favorite, and he's still a long shot. Instead, Timothée Chalamet was widely perceived as in the lead after early wins at the Globes and the Critics Choice Awards for his frenetic performance in “Marty Supreme.” But the BAFTAs muddied the waters (Robert Aramayo, not in the Oscar mix, was the unexpected winner). And “Sinners” star Michael B. Jordan, much to his surprise, won at the Actor Awards.

WHO HAS THE EDGE

Chalamet's maybe meta campaign, full of swagger and braggadocio, rubbed some voters the wrong way. At the same time, many in the academy felt the 30-year-old should have won last year, for his Bob Dylan in “A Complete Unknown” — a year when he won with the actors guild but lost to Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”) at the Oscars. Chalamet will hope the reverse happens this year. But the academy is notoriously resistant to rewarding young stars. Jordan, 39, isn't much older. But it now suddenly feels like his moment.

Best Actress

WHERE THINGS STAND

Since the fall festival launch of “Hamnet,” Jessie Buckley has been the favorite. She's won at the Globes, the BAFTAs and the Actor Awards. Her closest competition is probably Rose Byrne, who won at the Globes in the comedy/musical category for “If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.”

WHO HAS THE EDGE

This one’s easy. Fortunes have fluctuated in most of the top categories, but Buckley has been entrenched as the front-runner for months.

Best Supporting Actor

WHERE THINGS STAND

Sean Penn, a two-time Oscar winner, has done nearly no campaigning, yet he finds himself the favorite after winning at the Actor Awards and the BAFTAs. But several other nominees remain in the mix. Stellan Skarsgård (“Sentimental Value”) won at the Globes and is the kind of widely-liked veteran actor the academy likes to reward. But so is Delroy Lindo (“Sinners”), who was a surprise Oscar nominee. In the eyes of many, Lindo has quickly joined the contenders.

WHO HAS THE EDGE

Penn's recent wins put him clearly in the lead, and he might stay there. But this remains a category rife with possibilities. The academy's strong international leanings should help Skarsgård. And it wasn't an accident that when “Sinners” won best ensemble at the Actor Awards, Lindo gave the acceptance speech.

Best Supporting Actress

WHERE THINGS STAND

This category has been all over the map. Teyana Taylor (“One Battle After Another”) won at the Globes. Wunmi Mosaku (“Sinners”) won at the BAFTAs. And Amy Madigan (“Weapons”) won at both the Actor Awards and the Critics Choice Awards.

WHO HAS THE EDGE

Any of those three could win. Two of them — Taylor and Mosaku — have the benefit of co-starring in films the academy obviously loves. “Sinners” and “One Battle After Another” have 29 nominations between them, while “Weapons” has only the one. Yet the 75-year-old Madigan, another celebrated character actor who's been great for decades, has the momentum thanks to her charming Actors Award speech.