Signs of recovery: Amidst spikes in COVID-19 infections

BIG DIP: Air travel passenger demand dropped by 90% at the onset of the pandemic in April of this year. The International Civil Aviation Organisation's traffic monitoring estimates that overall 2020 passenger totals will be down by 60% compared to 2019. But domestic flights in China and India are among the first to show signs of recovery this 2020.

PANDEMIC RAGES ON, MARKETS SOAR: Is there a disconnect between the coronavirus crisis and markets? The pandemic still rages on, and is fact worsening, with 63 million infected so far, and 1.46 million deaths as of November 30, 2020. Of the total cases, 4.2 million were registered in the month of November alone in the US, the worst-hit country, which had so far seen 268,000 deaths from COVID-19. But markets are cheering the news about vaccines. Global stocks rose on Tuesday (December 1, 2020) on hopes of recovery, following a stellar November.

SOARING: The global economy may take time to get back to pre-pandemic levels. But there's hope of a full recovery by the end of next year, as vaccines help the world go back to "old normal". One sign of recovery is found in the Indian aviation sector: nearly 65 per cent of the domestic air travel has returned to the pre-COVID-19 level, according to India's Civil Aviation Secretary Pradeep Singh Kharola.

DOMESTIC FLIGHTS EN ROUTE TO RECOVERY: On the first day of resumption of domestic air services (May 25, 2020) in India, there were 79,000 people who flew. Then it gradually started improving. On Friday (November 27), 250,000 (2.50 lakh) passengers travelled on domestic flights. Considering that India's average daily pre-pandemic passenger number was around 370,000 to 375,000 (3.70-3.75 lakh), almost 65 per cent of the domestic travel is back to the pre-COVID-19 level.

DOMESTIC FLIGHTS BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS: By mid-February 2020, the majority of flights within China were cancelled as part of strict pandemic control measures. In September 2020, China’s three biggest carriers recorded year-on-year domestic passenger traffic growth for the first time since the virus outbreak began. The ‘Big Three’ — Air China, China Southern Airlines and China Eastern Airlines — each carried more passengers compared to the same month last year, according to Flight Global, an aviation site.

CLASSIC SIGNS OF RECOVERY: Classical economics show that a bounce back in the housing market is one of the signs of recovery. Another sign: increased manufacturing activity as well as stock market recovery. On Tuesday, December 1, 2020, global stocks ended higher after Chinese manufacturing improved and South Korea reported stronger exports.

OIL PRICES EDGE HIGHER: The prospect of a faster recovery in global economic activity triggered strong gains in oil prices. On Tuesday (December 1, 2020), futures prices for a barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the North American benchmark, rose by 9% to $40.58 on November 9, 2020, around the time of successful vaccine trial results were announced, and rose further to $45.18 on Tuesday, December 1, 2020. The North Sea equivalent, Brent crude, gained 8% to $42.71 on November 9, and edged further up to $47.83 on December 1, 2020.

UNEVEN GROWTH: Growth, however, is likely to be uneven, the OECD said on Tuesday (December 1, 2020). Signs that vaccines could now be weeks away from distribution have injected cautious optimism as the year limps to a close with COVID-19 having claimed some 1.4 million lives.

PERKING UP MARKETS: The high efficacy rates of a number of vaccines, based on initial data, following extensive human trials has perked up markets. "For the first time since the pandemic began, there is now hope for a brighter future," OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone wrote in her introduction to the organisation's latest review of the global economic outlook. "The road ahead is brighter but challenging," Boone wrote.

EXPECTATIONS: Progress with vaccines and treatment have lifted expectations and uncertainty has receded, said experts. This man in Ohio was among the tens of thousands who received Moderna’s experimental COVID-19 vaccine in a recent trial that demonstrated 94.1% efficacy, during a second interim data read-out announced on Tuesday.

CARNIVAL SHARES JUMP 38%: On November 9, 2020, shares in the cruise company Carnival, whose ships were at the centre of multiple prominent coronavirus outbreaks, jumped by 38% to their highest point since June, albeit again only a fraction of their pre-pandemic worth. The main trigger: the announcement by drug companies Pfizer and BioNTech that their coronavirus vaccine was 90% effective in trials, giving hope that economies around the world can soon return to normal.

SIGN OF RECOVERY: In the UK, one sign of recovery is in the property sector. Home prices are growing at fastest pace since 2015 and defying COVID-19 fallout. The housing market is booming in large part due to a government suspension of a tax on home purchases until the end of March and pent-up demand following a spring coronavirus lockdown that temporarily closed it down.

CHALLENGES AHEAD: Economists acknowledge, however, that given the logistical challenge of distributing any vaccines that may be approved, even on an emergency-use basis, the virus containment measures would likely be necessary for some months to come. A woman walks her dog on a residential housing estate in Bracknell, UK.

ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DEPENDS ON PANDEMIC: The overall economic outlook remains highly uncertain and will depend heavily on how the pandemic and the measures to contain it evolve. Robert Gardner, Nationwide's chief economist in the UK. said: "Housing market activity (in the UK) is likely to slow in the coming quarters, perhaps sharply."

CRUISES TO NOWHERE: The cruise industry seemed doomed by the COVID-19 pandemic. Photo shows health personnel preparing antigen rapid test for COVID-19 coronavirus for passengers during embarkation procedures on World Dream cruise ship for "cruises to nowhere" at Marina Bay Cruise Centre in Singapore on November 6, 2020 in a bid to revive its pandemic-hit tourism industry. History, however, says the industry will recover. Like the hotel industry, cruising satisfies a couple of basic human wants — to be social and to get away — and it does both at the same time.

RECOVERY IN 2024: The International Air Transport Association, a global industry group, has warned global passenger numbers will not return to pre-virus levels until 2024, a year later than previously projected. Photo shows the immigration and arrival hall at Indira Gandhi International Airport in New Delhi. This date, however, largely depends on how quickly the world responds to the COVID-19 challenge, with a major policy decision on vaccines due in the next two weeks in the US, more than 90% efficacy rates of the leading jabs from Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna.